Natural gas price forecast: Market weakens below $2.92 as war-driven volatility hits gas outlook

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Natural gas price outlook

Highlights

Price has dropped to $2.92 after a sharp rejection from the $3.25 zone tested earlier this week.
RSI reads 39.59, with the signal line at 35.77; weak and still trending lower, with no sign of stabilization yet.
Support sits near $2.85-$2.90, with resistance now stacked between $2.95 and $3.07.

Natural gas is trading well below all four of its key moving averages after the recent breakdown. The 20-period EMA, currently trading at $2.95, is the first level price to be reclaimed, followed by the 50-period EMA, currently trading at $3.07. Both EMAs are currently providing resistance, having previously provided support. Further above, the 100-period EMA is currently at $3.04, and the 200-period EMA is at $3.07, both of which have provided resistance to the price following the early March spike to $3.47.

Natural gas price dynamics (February to March 2026). Source: TradingView.

Again, this pattern is becoming all too familiar. Natural gas is now making its third significant spike towards the $3.25 to $3.47 price range, and, again, this price level is being sold heavily. This latest sell-off from $3.25 is by far the largest, with a 9% drop over a few sessions. RSI is currently trading at 39.59, which is still not in oversold territory, suggesting further declines before a strong rebound. Furthermore, with the signal line currently trading lower at 35.77, the price remains in a declining phase.

Repeated rejection from highs signals distribution, not accumulation

Three attempts to hold above $3.25 in less than three weeks have not been a positive sign. Each time there has been a move up, sellers have been present, and selling has accelerated. This is a characteristic of a market where supply continues to overwhelm demand at higher price levels, and until demand can take out some of that supply, the trend remains down.

The wider context is also relevant in this case. Natural gas has been volatile since the end of February, trading in a range of $2.85 to $3.47 without showing any real trend. The main influences on price movements have been storage and weather-driven demand; without a fundamental driver, this bearish-biased price action can extend longer than anticipated.

The technical structure shows a pause after rapid expansion

If natural gas can hold above $2.90 and reclaim the $2.95 to $3.07 zone, a stabilization attempt toward the 50-period EMA around $3.09 is possible. A strong break above this level would indicate that the sell-off is losing steam and is likely to put the near-term outlook in a more neutral position.

On the downside, a break below $2.90 removes any near-term support and shifts focus to the $2.85 region, where buying interest was evident during the late February lows. A break below this level indicates that the entire recovery from those lows is likely reversing, and a retest of the $2.80 region is likely to be the focus.

In the previous analysis, it was noted that the $3.10 to $3.13 range was acting as consolidation support and that a hold above $3.01 was required to maintain the structure of the recovery. The price action has now broken below both levels, confirming that the consolidation has given way to a break lower rather than building a base.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.