Natural gas price forecast: Price steadies near $3 as post-rally momentum fades

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Natural gas price forecast

Highlights

Price is sitting in the $3.10 to $3.13 range after two failed attempts to hold above $3.25.
RSI has come down from the upper 60s to 57.72, while the signal line trails at 46.19.
The EMA cluster between $3.09 and $3.11 is acting as a support zone.

All four moving averages are within $0.015 of each other right now. The 20-period EMA is at $3.091, the 50-period at $3.102, the 100-period at $3.105, and the 200-period at $3.10. That kind of compression does not happen often. When it does, it usually means the preceding directional move has exhausted itself, and the market is figuring out what comes next. Price is sitting just above all of them, which keeps the structure technically intact, but only just.

Natural gas price dynamics (March 2026). Source: TradingView.

Natural gas rallied from $2.95, rising nearly 12% in a matter of days. But somewhere around $3.25, the buying started thinning out. Candles got smaller. Volume dropped off. Price made one more attempt near $3.30 but could not hold it and drifted back. That pattern after a fast move typically means the easy part of the trade is done, and what is left is chop until something new shows up to break the equilibrium.

RSI at 57.72 reflects exactly that. It peaked above 70 during the strongest part of the rally and has been sliding since without breaking down into weak territory. The gap between the RSI line and the signal at 46.19 is wide, which sometimes precedes a sharper move in either direction once the two lines converge.

A tight EMA cluster signals the market is at a decision point

The convergence of all four EMAs is the most interesting thing on this chart right now. These averages have flattened and compressed into a band of about $0.015, effectively turning them from dynamic levels into a single support zone just below the price. The market has been leaning on that zone since the rally stalled, and so far it has held.

What's missing is a reason to go higher from here. The move up off the lows seemed to be a bit of a momentum play rather than a fundamentally driven move, and without a reason to go higher, it will probably trade sideways until something forces a decision. The storage numbers, a change in the weather or any other supply-side surprise could be the reason. $3.25 has now been rejected twice. That makes it a level that matters. Until it breaks with some volume behind it, the near-term bias stays sideways.

The technical structure shows a pause after rapid expansion

However, if natural gas can stay above $3.10, another run higher is possible, but it needs to see new buying interest to break through the $3.25 resistance level, which has already caused price reversals twice.

In the previous analysis, it was noted that the $2.95 to $3.05 zone was acting as a base and that a recovery attempt was likely if that floor held. Price action since has confirmed that view, with a sharp rally developing from exactly that area, though the momentum has not yet been strong enough to sustain a move toward $3.35 or higher.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.