LVMH stock slides to €475 as China slowdown rattles luxury outlook

Highlights

LVMH is experiencing a deep bearish phase as the stock collapsed to €475 and broke the major support levels.
Weak Chinese demand and a broader luxury sector slowdown are causing a structural repricing.
Further downside toward €450 remains likely in the near term due to negative macro conditions.

This level represents a decline of over 40% from the 2025 highs near €850. It erased more than a year of gains and placed the stock firmly in bear market territory. From a technical perspective, all major support levels have been breached. The previously identified €660 and €620 zones failed to hold. This caused accelerated downside momentum.

LVMH stock price dynamics (January 2026 – March 2026). Source: TradingView.

Moving averages confirm a deeply bearish structure. The stock is trading significantly below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are now declining near €520 and €650 respectively. This separation confirms highly negative sentiment and suggests any rebound being unlikely.

Momentum indicators are now in capitulation territory. RSI has dropped below 30, signaling oversold conditions, but without clear evidence of reversal. Importantly, volume growth on recent declines imply forced selling and institutional deleveraging. So this situation does not take a form of profit-taking.

China slowdown drives sector-wide repricing

The Bloomberg report indicates LVMH’s worst-ever start to a year now appears understated relative to current price action. What looked like a temporary slowdown has evolved into a demand shock, particularly in China. It remains the key market of global luxury consumption.

Macroeconomic conditions in China continue to deteriorate. Growing weakness in the property sector, supported by rising youth unemployment and low consumer confidence negatively affects discretionary spending. Luxury goods are among the first categories to be cut.

For LVMH, this has significant implications across its core divisions. Fashion and leather goods are facing slower sell-through rates and rising inventory issues. Pricing power is now being tested as consumers have to become more selective.

Price scenarios suggest €450 test before stabilization

With LVMH now at €475, the near-term outlook remains uncertain. The base-case scenario over the next 2–4 weeks refers to a continued drift lower toward €450. It represents the next significant support level. Considering the current momentum, this level may be tested soon.

A bearish extension scenario would involve a break below €450. This could open the path toward €420. This would imply an additional 10–12% downside. This would mean negative revisions in earnings expectations and further deterioration in Chinese macro data.

The sell-off in LVMH and other luxury stocks intensified after military strikes involving Iran. Investors are reducing demand for European luxury products amid fears that a broader regional conflict could weaken demand, a risk increasingly reflected in current valuations.

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