Nvidia stock price forecast: $177.13 support in focus as NVDA trades flat

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Nvidia up 0.30% at $189.26 today

Highlights

Nvidia maintains strong demand and market leadership in AI accelerators, supporting robust fundamentals and ongoing growth expectations.
Japan's $4 billion subsidy to boost local AI chip production could influence Nvidia’s future competitive position and regional sales trends.
NVDA trades in a bullish trend above key support with high probability of consolidating between $185 and $190 over the next week.

Regional subsidies and institutional shifts reshape ai chip landscape

Nvidia continues to see strong demand for its AI accelerators and maintains a leading position in the AI chip market. Japan has approved $4 billion in subsidies to boost domestic AI chip production, which may influence Nvidia’s regional sales. Recent institutional activity includes portfolio adjustments by Trust Co. of Vermont, YHB Investment Advisors, Blue Trust Inc., and Scharf Investments LLC, as well as increased bearish option positioning from a prominent hedge fund manager.

Bullish structure persists as overbought signals heighten exhaustion risk

NVDA is trading firmly above its SMA-20, SMA-50, and SMA-200, which supports a bullish technical structure. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $177.13 serves as immediate support. Momentum indicators show a mixed picture: the MACD is neutral, while the ADX points to weak trend strength. The RSI is at 61.37 (bullish but not overbought), with the Stoch RSI and CCI readings suggesting persistent overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 10.54 highlights buyer dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator also supports underlying strength. Despite a minor gap down at today’s open, the price reversed higher and is now near session highs within a low-volatility trading range. However, there is some divergence as fading momentum contrasts with still-bullish oscillators, making technical exhaustion a risk.

Upside scenario favored as volatility bands tighten above support

For the next five trading days, the typical volatility band is expected between $184.82 and $189.96. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of a price increase, as all key weekly signals remain bullish. The baseline scenario projects NVDA consolidating within the $185 – $190 range. A sustained break above $190 would pave the way for new highs, while a bearish reversal would require a move below $177, which currently appears unlikely.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia’s price action supported by its leadership in AI chips and robust demand, but highlights caution given technical exhaustion risks and some fading momentum. He notes that while major support holds at $177.13, growing institutional moves and shifting sentiment warrant attention. The analyst remains cautious, expecting consolidation between $185 and $190 unless a decisive break occurs. "Until NVDA clears $190 or loses $177, my bias stays neutral and risk-focused — there’s no clear setup for aggressive action here."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia's technical strength and leading AI chip market position warranted a generally bullish outlook, though caution was advised due to mixed momentum signals and emerging regional challenges. Currently, with NVDA maintaining a strong bullish structure but showing signs of technical exhaustion amid persistent overbought indicators, traders should closely monitor for a decisive breakout above $190 as a potential trigger for renewed upside momentum.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.