Nvidia stock price forecast: $215.81 resistance in focus as NVDA rises 3.44%

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Nvidia gains 3.44% to $212.37 today

Highlights

Nvidia is marketing its new Vera CPUs to Chinese clients to offset lost GPU sales amid strict US export controls.
A $2 billion Sovereign AI Hub deal in Kazakhstan expands Nvidia's involvement in state-backed AI infrastructure projects in Central Asia.
NVDA/USD is expected to consolidate between $206.34 and $218.40 as overcrowded long positions conflict with mixed momentum signals.

CPU market pivot offsets GPU trade risks amid US-China restrictions

Nvidia is actively pitching its new Vera CPUs to potential Chinese customers as ongoing US-China trade tensions restrict H200 GPU exports, allowing the company to maintain access to critical sales channels while navigating regulatory uncertainty. This strategy helps offset potential demand losses in GPUs and underscores Nvidia's flexibility in preserving market share amid evolving export controls. Additionally, the $2 billion Sovereign AI Hub agreement with Kazakhstan, part of a broader $17.2 billion set of deals, highlights Nvidia's expanding presence in state-driven AI infrastructure projects and its growing foothold within Central Asia.

Mixed momentum signals as buyers test resistance above short-term average

On the H4 timeframe, NVDA trades above the MA-20 ($212.37) but below the MA-50, while remaining significantly above the daily MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun is at $215.81, marking immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD points to strong selling, ADX is neutral, RSI flashes a buy, and CCI also remains neutral. Both Stoch RSI and BBP readings are overbought, confirming buyer dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator stays neutral, suggesting conflicted short-term momentum as buyers push the price near session highs.

Rangebound action likely unless support or resistance levels breach

Over the coming two to three trading days, NVDA is likely to fluctuate within a $206.34 to $218.40 volatility band relative to current levels. The baseline scenario anticipates consolidation inside this range. If the price breaks above the $215.81 resistance level, an extended rally could follow. Conversely, a drop below $206.34 support may trigger renewed selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia’s recent CPU pivot in China as a necessary response to tightening trade restrictions, with the Kazakhstan deal partially supporting its global expansion narrative. He notes that while technicals show strong buyer activity near $212.37, conflicting short-term indicators and nearby resistance at $215.81 limit conviction. The analyst remains cautious given mixed momentum and potential for renewed selling if support at $206.34 breaks. "Base case is sideways consolidation between $206.34 and $218.40 — without a clear breakout, upside traction remains suspect for now."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia's medium-term technicals showed stabilization amid strong corporate actions and growing revenue, but near-term momentum remained mixed. The latest developments highlight Nvidia's adaptability in managing export headwinds and expanding global AI alliances, with upcoming price action likely to hinge on sustained consolidation and the potential for volatility if key resistance or support levels are breached.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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