NVDA shares advance with ADX supporting continued uptrend: weekly report

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Nvidia rises 4.15% this week

Highlights

Nvidia maintains a firmly bullish technical structure, trading above key moving averages and sustaining positive momentum indicators.
Short-term overbought signals and oscillator divergence suggest increased probability of consolidation or a pullback in the near term.
The expected trading range for the next week is $189 to $216, with a 75% chance of further upside if momentum persists.

Shareholder returns expand as buybacks rise and partnerships deepen

Nvidia expanded its shareholder return program, including plans to increase buybacks following recent gross margin pressures and rising competition. The company received regulatory approval in China to allow select domestic AI firms to purchase its H200 AI chips under specified conditions. Nvidia also formed a partnership with Hugging Face to co-develop an open-source AI model for robotics and continues collaborating with emerging AI chip developers.

Technical momentum stays bullish as weekly volatility surges

On the weekly chart, Nvidia's price remains well above all key moving averages, with the nearest dynamic support at the MA-20 ($196.37). Weekly indicators remain broadly bullish: MACD is firmly positive (Strong Buy), ADX is at 21.11 with a Buy signal, and both RSI and Stochastic RSI give bullish readings, though Bull/Bear Power is in overbought territory. The week closed at the top of the price range, with resistance near $216 and support around $189. Weekly volatility measured 7.33%, indicating continued strong interest and price movement.

Upside odds persist next week as overbought signals flag risk

Over the next 5 trading days, Nvidia is likely to trade between $189 and $216 based on current weekly indicators. There is a 75% probability of further upside given the continued Buy signals from the majority of oscillators, but overbought conditions suggest some risk of short-term consolidation. A break above $216 could trigger additional gains, while a pullback below $189 may lead to a correction toward dynamic supports.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Nvidia delivered another strong weekly gain, closing well above key moving averages and reaffirming its bullish technical structure. He believes investor sentiment was lifted by the expansion of the buyback program and new partnerships, even as regulatory uncertainty and competition mount. However, Kharitonov sees that most weekly indicators remain bullish, with persistent overbought signals and volatility highlighting elevated risks. Resistance at $216 and support near $189 frame the expected price range this week. The base case remains for sideways movement within this corridor, though momentum may drive further upside if resistance is broken. "Caution is warranted at these levels — as long as Nvidia trades below $216, I view any upside as limited and remain defensive this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that investor enthusiasm for Nvidia was driven by accelerating growth expectations and management’s confidence in ongoing momentum. The current technicals and strategy updates reinforce the bullish narrative, but traders should watch for potential volatility near resistance at $216 as overbought signals emerge.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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