Fed rate cut delays keep XAU trading flat

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Gold rises 0.59% to $4,768.94 today

Highlights

The US has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices above $100 and escalating geopolitical risk.
Heightened inflation concerns and disrupted energy supply are delaying central bank rate cuts, strengthening the US dollar and triggering warnings from global institutions.
Gold trades in a bullish long-term trend with buyers dominating intraday; price is expected to consolidate between $4,550 and $4,900 with high upside probability.

Oil surge and global inflation risk rise following US blockade escalation

Following the collapse of US-Iran peace talks over the weekend, the United States has implemented a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, sharply escalating geopolitical tensions and causing oil prices to surge above $100 per barrel. This blockade and the potential for supply disruptions have heightened global inflation concerns, pressuring central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, to delay or reconsider rate cuts, which in turn has strengthened the US dollar and raised real yields. Ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran issuing threats to regional ports in response to US actions, continues to elevate energy price risk and inflationary pressure. China has labeled the US blockade as dangerous and announced intentions to implement countermeasures, while the European Union faces adverse market reactions and political fallout. The IMF and World Bank have warned of pronounced macroeconomic risks and potential for prolonged disruption in commodity flows and inflation trajectories.

Mixed momentum as intraday buyer control meets medium-term hurdles

Gold is above short- and long-term moving averages but remains below the SMA-50, highlighting strong buyer momentum over the near and long term with some medium-term resistance. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $4,479.97 acts as immediate support, while price action remains strong after an upward move from a slight downward gap at the open. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD is neutral, ADX indicates seller dominance, RSI shows mild buying interest, Stoch RSI flags overbought conditions, and CCI is positive but not extreme. BBP signals buyers control intraday, but divergences in oscillators and neutral momentum suggest the upswing could be stalling even as buyers dominate session dynamics.

Bullish consolidation likely as volatility bands define upside breakout risk

For the next five trading days, gold is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between $4,550 and $4,900. There is a very high probability (over 80%) that price will increase, with a low probability of a decline. The baseline scenario is for consolidation within this corridor; a bullish breakout above $4,900 could signal further upside, while a break below $4,550 would indicate a deeper correction. Long-term trend signals from weekly MAs, RSI, and MACD remain bullish.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Analyst at Traders Union, sees gold maintaining a constructive bias amid heightened geopolitical risk and strong macroeconomic drivers. He notes that gold stays above short- and long-term averages, with medium-term resistance but strong support from safe haven demand as inflation and central bank policy uncertainty rise. The expert believes established volatility bands and intraday buying signals support further upside unless there is a sharp shift in market sentiment. He remains confident in gold’s resilience near current levels. "With ongoing tensions and inflation pressures, I expect gold to stay robust and view pullbacks toward $4,550 as new buy opportunities this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent central bank buying and heightened geopolitical tensions continued to underpin a bullish outlook for gold. The latest escalation in US-Iran hostilities and the resulting surge in oil prices not only reinforces gold’s safe-haven appeal but also introduces greater volatility, making a bullish breakout above $4,900 a key risk to monitor in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.