Gold price forecast: $4,850 resistance holds as XAU trades sideways

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Gold drops 0.59% to $4,813 today

Highlights

Emerging market central banks including Turkey, Russia, and Ghana sold gold reserves to bolster domestic currencies and finance energy and defense needs.
HSBC Private Bank shifted allocations from Indian equities into gold and defensive assets due to higher oil prices and persistent geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict.
Gold trades with bullish long-term momentum and low intraday volatility, with an expected five-day range of $4,570 to $4,900 as overbought readings signal a potential pause or corrective move if key supports break.

Emerging market gold sales fuel liquidity needs amid geopolitical risks

Central banks in emerging economies, including Turkey, Russia, and Ghana, have recently sold portions of their gold reserves to support domestic currencies and fund energy and defense expenses. In March, Turkey reduced its gold holdings by 131 tons while other countries also trimmed reserves to improve liquidity. Additionally, HSBC Private Bank reallocated holdings from Indian equities to gold and defensive assets due to higher oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties related to the Iran conflict. These actions were accompanied by renewed safe-haven demand following heightened geopolitical risk, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Overbought signals intensify as mixed momentum tempers uptrend

Momentum readings on the daily chart are mixed: the ADX signals a 'Sell' but remains robust at 31.20, and the MACD is neutral. Oscillators indicate overbought conditions, with elevated Stoch RSI and CCI values and strong buyer dominance shown by BBP, while the RSI remains in bullish territory at 58.98. The Awesome Oscillator also supports the prevailing uptrend. After opening the session with a small gap down, the price has retreated modestly and now sits near the upper end of today’s range ($4,803.30 – $4,814.40). The Ichimoku Kijun level at $4,479.97 sits below the current price, marking immediate support. Intraday volatility is low, and underlying divergence is suggested by the overbought indicators and neutral momentum signals.

Upside favored as volatility anchors within trading range

For the next five trading days, gold is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between $4,570 and $4,900. There is a very high probability (greater than 80%) of a price increase, though a decrease remains possible but less likely. Sideways movement within this corridor is the baseline scenario. A breakout above $4,850 could initiate a move toward $4,900, whereas a drop below $4,570 would likely trigger a corrective phase toward the immediate support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the technical picture for gold as mixed but still underpinned by a broadly bullish structure, with price sitting above key long- and short-term averages. He notes that recent central bank gold sales and HSBC’s asset allocation shift have not fundamentally shaken safe-haven demand, but selling pressure and overbought readings raise caution. Volatility is low and a sideways range between $4,570 and $4,900 remains likely unless broken decisively. "Until there’s a clear breakout above $4,850 or a drop under $4,570, I remain cautious and would avoid aggressive positioning."

Earlier, analysts noted that ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank activity continued to underpin a bullish outlook for gold, despite intermittent selling pressure. The latest shifts in gold reserve management and enhanced safe-haven demand in response to recent oil market volatility reinforce the prevailing scenario, with a breakout above $4,850 emerging as a key level to monitor for potential upside momentum in the coming days.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.