Rising US Treasury yields keep Gold trading steady

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Gold slides 0.59% to $4,813.25 today

Highlights

Geopolitical tensions from the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian threats have sharply driven oil above $100 and elevated cross-border geopolitical risk.
Emerging market central banks, facing currency crises and payment disruptions, are actively selling gold reserves to buffer currencies and secure essential imports.
Gold trades with a bullish long-term bias despite near-term overbought signals, with an expected five-session price band of $4,570 to $5,050 amid heightened volatility and risk of short-term pullbacks.

Central bank gold sales accelerate amid rising geopolitical and trade risks

Following the collapse of US-Iran negotiations, the US has implemented a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to threaten retaliatory action against ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, sharply elevating geopolitical risk in global trade corridors. This blockade has caused a surge in crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and has disrupted normal market functioning, with payment disruptions increasing reliance on gold as a trusted cross-border asset. Central banks from emerging economies including Turkey, Russia, and Ghana have begun selling gold reserves to defend weakening currencies and fund essential imports amid rising US yields and persistent war-driven pressures. The ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside Iran’s threats and continued strikes between Israel and Hezbollah, maintains a high-risk environment across regional trade and energy supply chains.

Overbought signals and mixed momentum as price nears key resistance

Gold’s current price is positioned above the MA-20 and MA-200, but just below the MA-50, supporting a bullish stance both short and long term while indicating medium-term resistance near the MA-50. The Ichimoku Kijun at $4,479.97 acts as key support. On the daily chart, momentum signals are mixed: the MACD is neutral, ADX generates a strong Sell signal, and while RSI is moderately bullish, the Stoch RSI and CCI are deeply overbought. BBP also shows overbought conditions and the Awesome Oscillator signals Buy, reflecting ongoing buyer dominance but the risk of reversal. The asset opened below the previous close, revealing intraday selling pressure amid moderate volatility.

High upside probability as price consolidates within broad trading band

In the coming five sessions, XAU is likely to remain within a typical volatility band between $4,570 and $5,050. The probability of an upward move is very high (over 80%), suggesting downside is less likely. Baseline expectation is sideways trading as buyers and sellers reach an equilibrium. A breakout above the MA-50 and recent highs could bring a push to $5,050, while a failure of support near the Ichimoku Kijun and MA-20 may trigger a test of $4,570.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes geopolitical risks and central bank flows are reinforcing gold's role as a defensive macro asset. He sees robust demand from investors seeking safety in the face of escalating Middle East tensions and payment disruptions. Technical signals suggest buyers are dominant but face resistance near the MA-50. Sentiment is supported by gold’s resilience above its long-term averages. "With volatility high and underlying macro drivers in play, I expect gold to gravitate towards $5,050 in the short term as safe-haven demand remains elevated."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold maintained an overall bullish outlook amid heightened geopolitical tensions and intermittent reserve sales by emerging market central banks. The current escalation in Middle East conflict and surging oil prices reinforces this positive long-term stance, but with technical resistance holding near the MA-50, a decisive breakout above this level will be critical to confirm sustained upward momentum beyond prevailing volatility.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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