Gold consolidates as People's Bank of China continues gold accumulation

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Gold rises 0.64% to $4,821.83 today

Highlights

Turkey, Russia, and Ghana are selling gold reserves to stabilize their currencies while China maintains robust central bank gold buying.
Gold prices remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions in Iran and shifts in institutional physical demand, supporting ongoing volatility.
Gold trades with a short-term bullish bias and steady upward pressure; expected to consolidate between $4,630 and $4,980 next week.

Institutional gold flows shift as central banks adjust reserve strategies

Central bank activity continues to be a significant market driver, as Turkey, Russia, and Ghana have been selling gold reserves to support their currencies and boost liquidity. In contrast, the People's Bank of China extended its gold buying streak to 15–16 consecutive months, with reported holdings around 2,300 tonnes. Recent trading has taken place within a range, with gold reacting to ongoing developments in the Iran conflict and underlying shifts in physical demand from institutions.

Divergent momentum signals as overbought risks temper bullish bias

Momentum signals are diverging: while the MACD reads neutral on the daily timeframe but strong buy on most lower timeframes, the ADX (D1) suggests waning trend strength even as the weekly chart shows a strong uptrend. The RSI at 56.91 indicates a buy, yet both Stoch RSI and CCI warn of overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power points to strong buyer dominance and the Awesome Oscillator also supports bullish momentum. With moderate intraday volatility and a $31 (0.64%) upward move, gold remains mid-range for the day, reflecting steady upward pressure tempered by caution from overbought oscillators.

Consolidation expected as breakout risks shape next week’s outlook

For the next week, typical volatility suggests gold will likely trade between $4,630 and $4,980, a band roughly ±7% from current levels. There is a high probability of an upward move, and any price decreases are less likely. Baseline expectation is for XAU to consolidate between $4,630 and $4,980. A decisive break above $4,980 may open the door to new highs, while a sustained drop below $4,630 could trigger profit-taking, although the longer-term uptrend remains intact.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees a technical picture showing short-term bullish momentum for gold, but notes that immediate resistance remains at $4,847.76. He highlights that recent central bank selling contrasts with ongoing Chinese accumulation, adding to market uncertainty. Kharitonov is cautious given overbought signals and weakening daily trend strength. "Base case remains consolidation between $4,630 and $4,980 — unless the upper bound is decisively broken, I stay defensive on new longs."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold maintained a bullish long-term outlook amid heightened geopolitical tensions, with intermittent central bank reserve activity shaping price dynamics. The latest price action and mixed momentum signals reinforce this positive bias, but traders should watch for a potential breakout above $4,980, which could signal a renewed upward phase.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.