Gold holds steady as global central banks buying gold for diversification

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Gold rises 0.44% to $4,807.69 today

Highlights

US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz are increasing global gold demand, with central banks accelerating gold accumulation for diversification.
India saw over Rs 20,000 crore in Akshaya Tritiya gold and silver purchases, with a shift from jewelry to investment products amid updated import rules.
Gold is exhibiting short-term bullish momentum within the $4,650–$4,950 range, with overbought indicators suggesting potential for consolidation despite strong weekly buy signals.

Central bank buying and Indian investment drive amid geopolitical stress

Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz blockade are shaping gold demand dynamics. The US dollar is strengthening while global central banks, including the People’s Bank of China, are accumulating gold as part of diversification measures. In India, Akshaya Tritiya 2026 prompted record-value gold and silver purchases worth over Rs 20,000 crore, even as jewellery demand softened in favor of investment products. Indian authorities have updated the list of banks authorized to import gold and silver, addressing recent import disruptions.

Mixed momentum and overbought signals as price tests technical boundaries

XAU is trading above the SMA-20 ($4,726.41), just below the SMA-50 ($4,822.23), and remains well above the SMA-200 ($4,515.69). The daily Ichimoku Kijun level at $4,597.20 provides immediate support. Momentum readings are mixed: MACD and ADX (at 28.73) point to moderately positive momentum with only modest trend strength. Oscillators show divergence, as Stoch RSI and BBP indicate overbought conditions and buyer dominance intraday, while RSI and CCI are only mildly positive. The Awesome Oscillator supports the current upward trend, but mixed momentum readings highlight a risk of short-term consolidation or potential reversal.

Sideways-to-upside range likely as buyers maintain control

For the coming week, XAU is expected to trade within the $4,650–$4,950 range, corresponding to typical weekly volatility around current levels. Momentum signals on the weekly chart favor further upside, with a very high probability of price increase as buyers control the outlook. The baseline scenario is for a sideways range as buyers and sellers contend; a break above $4,950 could unlock additional gains, while a drop below $4,650 would increase the risk of a corrective pullback.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that global demand for gold is robust amid escalating geopolitical tensions and ongoing central bank accumulation. He sees strong institutional support and regulatory adaptation, especially in India, as reinforcing the positive macro backdrop. Technical readings confirm an upward bias, even as short-term signals suggest possible consolidation within the $4,650–$4,950 range. Karapetjanc believes the odds favor buyers and expects further gains if XAU breaks above resistance. "Gold remains fundamentally supported, and I see strong potential for continued upside as long as macro and demand factors persist."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold maintained a bullish long-term structure despite heightened geopolitical volatility and regulatory shifts affecting import flows. With momentum signals remaining mixed and overbought conditions persisting, traders should now closely monitor the $4,950 level as a potential breakout point that could renew upward momentum or, if rejected, trigger corrective downside.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.