Stable trading for Chevron stock as U.S.-Iran tensions disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping

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Chevron rises 0.89% to $185.60 today

Highlights

Chevron expands its portfolio by increasing its Venezuelan joint venture stake to 49% and securing new Orinoco belt assets.
Regulatory approval for continued Gorgon project development and a favorable U.S. Supreme Court ruling address significant legal and operational risks.
Chevron trades below key moving averages amid short-term selling pressure, but technical signals project a likely rebound toward $191.50 over the next week.

Earnings outlook shaped by asset expansion and legal wins

Chevron is preparing to release its first quarter earnings against the backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and strategic portfolio expansion in Venezuela, where it has increased its stake in the Petroindependencia joint venture to 49% and secured development rights for the Ayacucho-8 area in the Orinoco belt. The company also received regulatory approval from Australia's NOPSEMA for continued development of its Gorgon project off Western Australia. Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Chevron's favor regarding the transfer of coastal-damage lawsuits in Louisiana to federal court, which could impact a $745 million jury verdict. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have also been a key influence on sentiment in the energy sector.

Weak momentum persists as major support defends against selling

CVX is positioned below the MA-20 ($198.01) and MA-50 ($191.91), but remains above the MA-200 ($164.70). The Ichimoku Kijun level is at $196.24, marking immediate resistance, while $185.00 provides near-term support and $191.50 acts as overhead resistance. Momentum signals on the daily timeframe are mixed: MACD and ADX indicate weak momentum and downside bias, whereas RSI (37.9), Stoch RSI (1.98), and CCI (–135.22) are in oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) registers –7.43, highlighting sustained seller dominance intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) aligns with the prevailing downtrend. Intraday, CVX has shown early session strength with low volatility near the daily high despite the underlying momentum environment.

Bullish weekly indicators support expected upside within volatility range

Over the next five trading days, CVX is expected to fluctuate within a volatility band between $185.00 and $191.50. Upside scenarios are favored given bullish signals from weekly timeframe RSI, ADX, MACD, and MA-50, indicating a 100% probability of a price increase and a very low risk of decline. A move above the Ichimoku Kijun could open the way to test resistance at $191.50, while loss of support below $185.00 might expose the stock to additional downside toward long-term support levels.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Chevron trading below short- and medium-term technical levels despite recent portfolio expansions and favorable legal outcomes. He believes weak momentum and lingering downside signals keep risk elevated, with oversold readings offering only limited support. Until price recovers above $191.50 and reclaims key moving averages, the base case is further consolidation or weakness. "As long as CVX stalls below resistance, I remain cautious and see no clear upside catalyst in the near term."

Previously it was reported that Chevron was facing continued short-term selling pressure underpinned by weak technical momentum and cautious investor sentiment. The current setup, highlighted by renewed portfolio expansion and favorable weekly momentum signals, shifts the focus to whether CVX can sustain a move above $191.50 resistance and break out of its consolidation range.

Source of Data: CVX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.