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David Bird: S&P 500 trends show lower returns after 18 year market cycle peaks

David Bird: S&P 500 trends show lower returns after 18 year market cycle peaks
S&P 500 trends after 18 year peaks

David Bird observes that the S&P 500 has historically failed to deliver above average returns after market peaks occurring in 18 year cycles over the last 100 years.

He points to patterns beginning in the 1900s and recurring every 18 years, specifically referencing 1918 with a notable market move. Bird suggests that while history does not repeat exactly, market behavior often rhymes, revealing recurring cycles in long-term returns.

Bird has recently tracked the weakening performance of the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks, observing their outperformance over the S&P 500 had peaked in late 2025 here. Earlier this year, he reported a full sellout in his metals and energy cohort after a strong rally in gold, silver, platinum, and oil here. These events add to Bird's ongoing commentary on cyclical trends in major asset classes.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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