-0.67% for Silver as US-Iran tensions disrupt Hormuz Strait

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Silver drops 0.67% today to $79.19

Highlights

Escalating US-Iran tensions and the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have increased geopolitical risk, fueling volatility and supply concerns in the silver market.
Crude oil prices surged as Gulf shipping disruptions amplified inflation risk, while silver saw short-term price drops up to 2.5% on renewed regional uncertainty.
Silver trades with strong bullish momentum and overbought signals, with a projected five-day range of $77.00 to $82.00 and a high likelihood of continued upside.

Middle East conflict sparks volatility as supply routes face disruption

Over the weekend preceding April 20, renewed US-Iran tensions in the Middle East led to the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz following reported ship attacks, amplifying concerns about potential disruptions to energy supply routes and reigniting inflationary pressures across global markets. The conflict has heightened geopolitical risk and triggered short-term volatility in the silver market, with both gold and silver prices falling by up to 2.5% immediately after the reported incidents. As of April 20, crude oil prices have surged due to restricted Gulf shipping, further straining macroeconomic stability. The ongoing conflict and ceasefire uncertainty in the region continue to drive geopolitical risk exposure for silver, particularly as markets remain highly sensitive to news events related to Middle East stability.

Positive momentum softens as overbought signals and support converge

On the daily chart, XAG is well above the SMA-20 at $75.96, SMA-50 at $77.20, and the long-term SMA-200 at $69.79. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $74.94 acts as immediate support. MACD continues to show a buy signal, but ADX suggests a short-term loss of trend strength. Stoch RSI and CCI are in overbought territory, with the RSI at a bullish 61 and BBP highly overbought, indicating strong buyer pressure intraday. The Awesome Oscillator remains positive but diverges slightly with softer intraday momentum following an early gap down.

Sideways trend expected as bullish momentum faces range resistance

In the next five trading days, XAG is likely to trade within a volatility band of $77.00 to $82.00 relative to current levels. The probability of further gains is high, but the baseline scenario expects sideways movement inside this range. Should bullish momentum extend, a push above $82.00 is possible, while a bearish reversal below $77.00 would indicate a test of lower support levels, though such a scenario has a low likelihood based on current technical signals.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees recent US-Iran tensions and heightened geopolitical risks as key drivers for silver’s short-term volatility. He believes silver remains technically strong above key moving averages and supported by optimistic sentiment, even with some intraday weakness. The analyst expects XAG to stay mostly within the $77.00–$82.00 range as energy market instability keeps macro pressure elevated. Karapetjanc maintains a constructive outlook and sees a high probability of sideways or upward movement. "Silver remains attractive in the current environment, with risk drivers favoring further gains as long as support holds above $77.00."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was sustaining gains on underlying industrial demand and geopolitical risk, but flagged mixed momentum suggesting caution. The current escalation in Middle East tensions introduces a fresh layer of volatility for XAG, making swift moves above $82 or below $77 plausible should headline risks intensify in the coming days.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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