People's Bank of China gold purchases support Gold consolidation

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Gold drops 0.53% today to $4,794.78

Highlights

The CSOP Gold ETF debuted as Hong Kong's largest local physical gold fund, bolstered by sustained Chinese central bank buying for sixteen months, lifting reserves to 2,308 tonnes.
Heightened geopolitical risk from US-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz closure has amplified safe-haven demand for gold despite ongoing selling pressure.
Gold remains in a broadly bullish trend with overbought momentum; expected five-day range is $4,670–$4,900, with upward moves more likely barring a technical breakdown below support.

ETF inflows and geopolitical concerns drive renewed gold demand

The CSOP Gold ETF (3030.HK) was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 21, 2026, making it the largest local physical gold ETF. The People's Bank of China was reported as a net buyer of gold for a sixteenth consecutive month through February 2026, increasing reserves to 2,308 tonnes, or about 10% of total holdings. Additional demand for gold has been driven by renewed US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with attention also focused on pending US economic data and comments from the Fed Chair-designate, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum signals as resistance approaches and buyers persist

On the technical side, gold remains above the SMA-20 at $4,742.87 and well above the SMA-200 at $4,521.17, but is positioned slightly under the SMA-50 at $4,813.52. Immediate support is highlighted by the Ichimoku Kijun on the daily chart at $4,618.42. Momentum signals are mixed, with MACD showing ongoing upside bias while ADX delivers a sell signal. Oscillators including RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI register in the buy or overbought zone, and BBP signals buyer dominance, with the Awesome Oscillator confirming the prevailing bullish tone.

Bullish outlook prevails as strong indicators support consolidation

Over the next five trading days, XAU is expected to fluctuate within a $4,670 to $4,900 range, corresponding to typical volatility bands near current prices. The likelihood of an upward move is high (above 80%), supported by persistently strong weekly indicators and favorable longer-term moving averages. The base scenario envisions price consolidating between support at $4,670 and resistance near $4,900. A clear move above $4,900 would reinforce bullish momentum, while a breakdown through $4,670 could prompt a short-term retracement, though longer-term technicals are expected to limit further declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, views gold’s position as robust, with strong institutional demand from China and geopolitical uncertainty providing macro support. He sees momentum sustaining above key moving averages, while technical signals broadly favor buyers over the next several days. The analyst expects price to consolidate but believes the odds favor an upward breakout past $4,900. "In my view, the confluence of central bank buying and positive momentum sets gold up for further gains if resistance gives way."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold maintained a bullish long-term structure despite short-term volatility linked to geopolitical risks and mixed momentum signals. The current environment not only confirms this constructive outlook but also highlights increasing physical demand from China and the launch of new gold investment vehicles, underscoring that sustained strength above $4,670 should keep the prevailing bullish scenario intact with potential for renewed momentum on a break above resistance.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.