The oil market remains fully focused on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes. Escalation news triggers sharp price surges, while de-escalation leads to heavy selloffs. Even supply disruption risks cause instant repricing, turning oil into a pure geopolitical asset.

Recent moves highlight high sensitivity: -10% in a day on Strait reopening news, quick bounces on fresh risks. This isn't a smooth trend but impulses, gaps, and sharp reversals, making active trading highly risky.
Latest EIA data shows inventory builds instead of draws, signaling non-overheated demand and no shortage. Every geopolitical rally is quickly capped by fundamentals.
Rising oil accelerates inflation, especially in Europe and the UK, impacting CPI via energy costs. Oil that's too expensive becomes its own enemy, curbing demand.
Hints of a U.S.-Iran deal crash prices; talks failure pushes them up. This is the top short-term driver. Thus, oil is a pure news-driven tool: technicals underperform, fundamentals secondary, news primary. Quotes hold high (~$90+), but no sustained trend—volatile flat with spikes.
Trump's announced ceasefire extension also weighs on WTI, capping yesterday's gains at $95.60/bbl after testing it, then retreating to support near $92.00/bbl. Return to this support raises break risks toward $91.00-90.00/bbl, but any negative Middle East news could spark a sharp rally.
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