WTI quotes have surged to $97/bbl amid Iran's partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with restrictions reinstated on April 18 after a fragile ceasefire; the market is headline-driven, producing unpredictable and uncontrollable swings.
The Strait remains the focal point: Iran imposed fees over $1M per passage, the US blockaded Iranian ports, traffic partially resumed, but satellite data shows tankers diverting; IEA warns of a historic supply shock (~15M bpd at risk).
Bullish momentum stems from deficit fears (+$48 YoY), with pullbacks on de-escalation signals used for buying.
Technically, resistance at $103–115 (Elliott wave pattern), support $90–97; upside break targets $120, stabilization eyes $85.
Dynamics are polarized: geopolitical risks and shortages pull higher, profit-taking plus Trump statements/negotiation signals weigh lower. Macro is ignored—oil embodies pure geopolitics: emotional, fast, risky. Bullish base, volatile short-term; market participants continue monitoring Hormuz traffic and the Middle East.
Rising odds of renewed US military action could see bulls breach current resistance, testing $102–105. Middle East de-escalation would trigger fresh selling.
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