Gold holds steady as geopolitical and macro uncertainty increases demand

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Gold rises 0.31% to $4,708 today

Highlights

Gold faces continued headwinds from a strong U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, pressuring near-term demand.
Despite market pressure, gold remains a key portfolio hedge during macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, according to the World Gold Council.
Technicals indicate short-term weakness below key moving averages, but gold is likely to consolidate above $4,650, with the next week’s range seen at $4,550–$4,900.

Defensive positioning as stronger dollar weighs on gold demand

Gold remains under pressure due to a firm U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, which are weighing on demand for the metal. According to the World Gold Council, gold continues to serve as a strategic asset for portfolios during ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Active defense of support levels and the pivotal $4,700–$4,750 range has emerged as central for near-term direction.

Mixed momentum signals as key resistance and support converge

On the technical front, $4,744.62 (SMA-20) and $4,773.12 (SMA-50) are acting as overhead resistance, while SMA-200 at $4,539.58 stands as long-term support. The D1 Ichimoku Kijun line is positioned at $4,652.17, providing immediate support. Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD is neutral, ADX at 27.44 suggests weak trend strength, and Awesome Oscillator is also neutral. RSI sits at 45.19 and Stoch RSI is oversold, with CCI at -95.16 highlighting short-term oversold conditions. BBP at -45.47 points to seller dominance intraday, and the price has rebounded toward today's high of $4,715.42 after an initial gap down. Divergence among momentum signals underlines uncertainty in the immediate trend.

Bullish breakout or renewed lows as volatility compresses

In the near term, gold is expected to move within a typical volatility band between $4,550 and $4,900. Consolidation above $4,650 is the base case, with muted volatility anticipated. A move above $4,750 could trigger bullish momentum toward $4,900, while losing $4,650 may expose the $4,550–$4,600 support zone.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees gold maintaining long-term strength despite short-term pressure from the resilient U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields. He notes that firm portfolio demand and strong macro drivers continue to underpin the metal. The analyst believes consolidation above $4,650 keeps the bullish case intact, with momentum likely to build if $4,750 is reclaimed. In his view, key support levels are well-defended for now. "Gold remains a strategic holding, and any break above $4,750 could spark a new bullish phase in the coming weeks."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold retained a broadly bullish long-term outlook despite periods of heightened volatility linked to macroeconomic and institutional factors. The current market's mixed momentum and ongoing defense of support levels suggest traders should monitor the $4,650 threshold closely, as a sustained move below this point could shift sentiment and broaden downside risk.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.