Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts amid Hormuz crisis
Goldman Sachs has significantly revised its oil price outlook upward due to the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now expects Brent crude to average $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, up from its previous forecast of $80.
Highlights
- Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel (from $80).
- The current quarter forecast increased to $100 per barrel.
- Daily production losses are estimated at 14.5 million barrels, leading to 11–12 million barrels per day inventory draw.
Updated projections
According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs analysts informed, that the loss of 14.5 million barrels per day of oil production in the Persian Gulf has led to an extreme drawdown in global inventories—estimated at 11–12 million barrels per day in April.
According to the latest quoted data, Brent crude is trading near $108.10, up 2.63%, while WTI crude is at $96.69, gaining 2.43%.
The bank now forecasts Brent at $100 per barrel in the current quarter and $93 in the third quarter. Oil futures recently traded around $108 per barrel. For comparison, Morgan Stanley maintained a more aggressive forecast of $110 per barrel for the current quarter.
Drivers behind the revision
The analysts highlighted that the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has virtually halted tanker traffic through one of the world’s most critical chokepoints. This has triggered an “extreme” inventory reduction that cannot be sustained long-term.
“Such an extreme inventory draw is unsustainable, and even sharper demand destruction may be required if the supply shock persists,” the bank warned.
Global economic risks
The crisis has already pushed oil prices up nearly 50% since the conflict began in late February. Goldman Sachs noted that the economic risks are now higher than its base case, citing elevated product prices, potential fuel shortages, and the unprecedented scale of the supply shock.
The bank emphasized that the oil market is currently operating in two parallel realities: largely closed to most shipping, yet with expectations of reopening that have so far not materialized.
Implications for the world economy
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to threaten global economic stability through higher energy costs and inflationary pressure.
Goldman Sachs’ revised outlook underscores how geopolitical events in the Middle East can rapidly reshape commodity markets and broader macroeconomic conditions.
We have previously highlighted that oil prices fall as Iran agrees to attend U.S. talks in Islamabad.
Latest Iran war News
-
Afghanistan
-
Albania
-
Algeria
-
Angola
-
Argentina
-
Armenia
-
Australia
-
Austria
-
Azerbaijan
-
Bahamas
-
Bahrain
-
Bangladesh
-
Belarus
-
Belgium
-
Bolivia
-
Botswana
-
Brazil
-
Brunei
-
Bulgaria
-
Cambodia
-
Cameroon
-
Canada
-
Chile
-
China
-
Colombia
-
Congo
-
Costa Rica
-
Cote d'Ivoire
-
Croatia
-
Cuba
-
Cyprus
-
Czechia
-
DR Congo
-
Denmark
-
Dominican Republic
-
Ecuador
-
Egypt
-
El Salvador
-
Estonia
-
Eswatini
-
Ethiopia
-
Finland
-
France
-
Georgia
-
Germany
-
Ghana
-
Greece
-
Haiti
-
Hong Kong
-
Hungary
-
India
-
Indonesia
-
Iran, Islamic republic
-
Iraq
-
Ireland
-
Israel
-
Italy
-
Jamaica
-
Japan
-
Jordan
-
Kazakhstan
-
Kenya
-
Korea
-
Kuwait
-
Kyrgyzstan
-
Laos
-
Latvia
-
Lebanon
-
Lesotho
-
Libya
-
Lithuania
-
Luxembourg
-
Madagascar
-
Malaysia
-
Malta
-
Mauritius
-
Mexico
-
Moldova
-
Mongolia
-
Montenegro
-
Morocco
-
Mozambique
-
Myanmar
-
Namibia
-
Nepal
-
Netherlands
-
New Zealand
-
Nigeria
-
North Macedonia
-
Norway
-
Oman
-
Pakistan
-
Palestine
-
Panama
-
Papua New Guinea
-
Paraguay
-
Peru
-
Philippines
-
Poland
-
Portugal
-
Puerto Rico
-
Qatar
-
Reunion
-
Romania
-
Rwanda
-
Saudi Arabia
-
Serbia
-
Singapore
-
Slovakia
-
Slovenia
-
Somalia
-
South Africa
-
Spain
-
Sri Lanka
-
Sweden
-
Switzerland
-
Syria
-
Taiwan
-
Tajikistan
-
Tanzania
-
Thailand
-
Trinidad and Tobago
-
Tunisia
-
Turkey
-
UAE
-
Uganda
-
Ukraine
-
United Kingdom
-
United States
-
Uruguay
-
Uzbekistan
-
Venezuela
-
Vietnam
-
Yemen
-
Zambia
-
Zimbabwe
- Forex
- Crypto
