Silver price forecast: $76.25 resistance in focus as XAG gains 3.17%

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Silver jumps 3.17% today to $73.58

Highlights

Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts almost 20% of global oil supply, driving up energy prices and inflation risks.
Escalating US-Iran conflict heightens stagflation fears and prompts safe-haven flows, causing increased volatility in silver markets.
Silver trades below key short-term resistance with mixed momentum signals, expected to consolidate in the $70.00–$77.00 range barring a breakout.

Safe-haven flows rise as Middle East energy shock stokes volatility

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted nearly 20% of global oil supply, tightening Middle East energy flows and fueling inflation concerns across markets. Stalled US-Iran negotiations and a prolonged naval blockade have intensified global inflation fears. The ongoing US-Iran conflict and related Middle East tensions have triggered a surge in oil prices, reinforcing expectations for higher-for-longer global interest rates and increasing stagflation risk. These developments have increased volatility in silver markets as safe-haven demand and industrial demand dynamics diverge under the pressure of geopolitical escalation, energy disruptions, and inflationary pressures.

Seller momentum prevails as oversold signals and resistance align

Silver is trading below the SMA-20 at $76.61 and SMA-50 at $75.54, but continues to hold above the SMA-200 at $70.93. Immediate resistance stands at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $76.25. Among technical indicators, ADX on the daily chart reflects seller strength, while MACD shows a neutral position. The RSI is weak at 36.96, with Stoch RSI and CCI both signaling oversold conditions. BBP readings point to persistent seller dominance, and the divergence between oversold oscillators and ongoing bearish momentum suggests short-term volatility as buyers attempt to regain control.

Upside favored as technical momentum supports consolidation scenario

For the next five trading days, Silver is expected to trade within a volatility band of $70.00 to $77.00, with consolidation around current levels considered the baseline scenario. Continued weekly momentum from indicators such as RSI, ADX, MACD, and the MA-50 favor the upside, resulting in a high probability of price gains within this period. A breakout above the immediate resistance at $76.25 would likely trigger a move to the upper end of the range, while a sustained drop below $70.00 would present downside risk.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Silver supported by strong macro drivers after the Strait of Hormuz closure sharply raised global inflation risks. He notes heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions and energy disruptions fuel divergent safe-haven and industrial flows. Technical signals stay mixed, but momentum is turning constructive with Silver above its long-term trend support. "As global markets grapple with energy shocks and inflationary pressure, I expect Silver to outperform, especially if resistance at $76.25 is breached in the upcoming week."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was under persistent downside pressure amid technical weakness and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Today’s escalation in Middle East tensions, along with intensified inflation concerns and diverging safe-haven versus industrial demand, adds new drivers to volatility; traders should monitor for abrupt momentum shifts should the $76.25 resistance be decisively cleared.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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