Silver consolidates as US-Iran tensions drive safe-haven inflows

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Silver rises 0.06% to $73.80 today

Highlights

Escalating US-Iran tensions and higher oil prices above $114 per barrel have spurred safe-haven flows into silver.
Persistent risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz is unsettling global inflation outlooks and curbing central bank rate cuts.
Silver trades below key short-term averages with technicals indicating likely rangebound movement between $72.50 and $76.50, though upside breakout risk remains elevated.

Safe-haven demand rises amid Middle East tensions and supply fears

Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, driving up oil prices above $114 per barrel and increasing volatility across global commodity markets. Increased US naval readiness near Iranian ports has intensified fears of supply disruptions and contributed to safe-haven inflows into silver. The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supply, has de-anchored global inflation expectations and discouraged central banks from easing monetary policy, further influencing the silver market. Persistent Middle East conflict continues to raise geopolitical instability, fueling risk aversion and affecting silver demand.

Upside capped as technical indicators present mixed momentum signals

Technically, XAG is trading below the SMA-20 at $76.60 and the SMA-50 at $75.29, highlighting short-term and medium-term resistance, while remaining above the SMA-200 at $71.06, which acts as a longer-term support zone. The Ichimoku Kijun sits well below at $41.52, offering little immediate influence but representing a distant support level. On the daily chart, the MACD signal is neutral and the ADX suggests a sell bias, implying limited upside momentum. The RSI is at 45.91 and CCI at -43.34, both indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while Stoch RSI points to a strong buy, creating technical divergence. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at -1.03 indicates short-term seller dominance, but HMA and Stoch RSI both suggest possible near-term buying interest.

Bullish breakout likely if resistance clears amid consolidating trend

In the near term, XAG is expected to consolidate within a volatility band of $72.50 to $76.50, based on recent price action and typical market swings. The probability of an upward breakout is high (over 80%), supported by bullish signals on the weekly chart from RSI, ADX, MACD, and the MA-50. Should silver clear the $76.50 level, the next bullish leg could develop, while a decisive drop below $72.50 would expose the market to renewed selling and a move toward longer-term supports.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees silver trading under short-term technical pressure despite ongoing safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions. He notes that persistent risk aversion and supply fears support silver's appeal, but the near-term setup remains mixed given resistance at $76.50 and seller control in momentum signals. Kharitonov believes the probability of an upside breakout exists, though he remains skeptical until silver clears key barriers. "Until XAG decisively breaks above $76.50, I see more evidence for cautious positioning rather than aggressive buying."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver rebounded from oversold conditions yet continued to face limited upside amid persistent geopolitical and technical uncertainty. With heightened tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz now fueling both volatility and safe-haven demand, traders should closely monitor the $76.50 resistance level for signs of a bullish breakout in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.