Natural gas prices continue to move under the influence of several factors at once — geopolitics, LNG supply flows, and weather-driven demand. In Europe, TTF prices are holding around €45–47/MWh after a sharp increase driven by tensions around Iran and risks to supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The market is concerned about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern LNG, as roughly 20% of global LNG shipments pass through the region.
US: oversupply pressures Henry Hub
Meanwhile, the US market remains relatively weak. Henry Hub is trading significantly below European and Asian benchmarks due to high storage levels and export infrastructure constraints. Despite growing LNG exports, the US is still unable to fully offset the global supply shortage, creating a paradox: gas is cheap domestically, while Europe and Asia compete for available LNG cargoes. Analysts note that this imbalance remains a key theme in the market for 2026.
Weather and storage remain key drivers
In the short term, the market is closely watching weather forecasts in the US. Rising temperatures increase electricity demand for cooling, which supports gas prices. However, high storage levels and stable production continue to limit the upside potential. This week, Henry Hub futures posted their largest daily gain in nearly two months, rising to around $2.9/mmBtu amid hot weather and geopolitical risks.
Mid-term outlook: market awaits new LNG wave
In the longer term, analysts expect a gradual easing in the gas market as new LNG projects come online in the US and other countries. The International Energy Agency forecasts an acceleration in global LNG supply growth in 2026, which could reduce pressure on European and Asian prices. However, until these new capacities are fully operational, the market remains sensitive to any supply disruptions and geopolitical developments — as previously discussed in Natural Gas: Local Weakness vs Structural Bullish Scenario.
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