The oil market remains highly volatile, with WTI trading above $100 per barrel following a series of sharp fluctuations. The main driver behind rising prices continues to be supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and growing tensions surrounding the US-Iran conflict.
Additional support comes from record declines in global oil inventories and resilient demand from Asian importers.
US oil inventories are falling faster than expected
The latest EIA data showed a third consecutive weekly decline in US commercial crude inventories. Stockpiles fell by more than 4 million barrels during the week, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations. At the same time, US crude exports and refinery utilization rates increased, adding further pressure to supply conditions. Falling gasoline inventories also point to sustained seasonal demand ahead of the peak summer driving season in the United States.
Geopolitics continue to add a risk premium to oil prices
The Middle East remains the key factor shaping the market. IEA analysts warn that ongoing supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are already contributing to a record drawdown in global oil reserves. Markets fear that a prolonged crisis could trigger a supply deficit by early summer. At the same time, despite downward revisions to global demand forecasts, supply remains constrained due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+’s cautious production policy.
Technical outlook and short-term forecast
From a technical perspective, WTI maintains a bullish structure above the psychological $100 level. Immediate resistance is located around $102.5–103, and a sustained breakout above this zone could strengthen momentum toward new local highs.
At the same time, the market remains extremely sensitive to any news related to the Middle East and negotiations surrounding the restoration of supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, as highlighted in the article U.S. crude holds above $100, outlook remains positive. Immediate support is seen near the $98–97 area, and only a move below these levels could weaken the current bullish momentum.
Latest WTI News
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