The oil market continues to experience elevated volatility: WTI (U.S. crude) is trading around $100 per barrel following sharp swings in recent weeks. The main driver remains the situation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—one of the key routes for global oil supply.
Even amid discussions of a potential ceasefire, traders continue to price in supply disruption risks, and the market reacts to nearly every statement from the U.S., Iran, and OPEC+.
Oil inventories are declining faster than expected
According to the latest EIA forecast, global oil inventories are falling significantly faster than previously estimated. The agency expects a supply deficit of about 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, while the second quarter has already seen one of the largest inventory drawdowns in recent years. Additional support for prices comes from declining U.S. commercial crude stocks: American reserves have been falling for the second consecutive week, while gasoline inventories remain below seasonal norms.
OPEC+, the U.S., and China are preventing a price shock
Despite ongoing tensions, the market is so far avoiding a scenario of extremely high oil prices. Analysts from Morgan Stanley and the IEA note that the situation is partly stabilized by the U.S. and China: Washington has increased oil exports, while China has reduced imports and is making greater use of domestic reserves. At the same time, instability within OPEC is rising—the UAE’s exit from the organization has become an unexpected factor, raising doubts about the cartel’s long-term unity. This increases uncertainty regarding future quotas and OPEC’s ability to control the market.
What’s next: key market scenario
The base case is continued high volatility in the coming months. As long as risks around the Middle East persist, oil is unlikely to enter a sustained decline. However, the market is gradually starting to factor in the opposite force—slowing global economic growth and potential demand weakening in the second half of the year.
Therefore, the $95–110 per barrel range for WTI currently appears the most likely, while future direction— as noted earlier, U.S. crude remains heavily influenced by geopolitics—will depend primarily on geopolitics, OPEC+ decisions, and U.S. inventory dynamics.
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