WTI and Brent continue to trade near multi-month highs amid ongoing tensions surrounding Iran and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The market remains highly sensitive to any news regarding a potential revival or breakdown of agreements between the US and Iran.
Recent statements from Washington indicating that negotiations are “on the verge of collapse” have once again heightened concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East.
As a result, declines in US WTI prices have been limited by support in the $94.00–93.50 per barrel range. After testing this support, prices rebounded toward resistance around $98.00. If the current truce holds, a move toward $100.00 may be used as a selling opportunity; however, a resumption of military action could push prices above that level.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the key market driver
The primary risk for the oil market is tied to potential restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies. Analysts at Morgan Stanley warn that in the case of a prolonged crisis, Brent could theoretically rise to $130–150 per barrel during the summer. At the same time, the market remains extremely volatile: any signals of diplomatic progress quickly trigger sharp sell-offs, as has already been observed earlier in May.
OPEC+ and the US attempt to stabilize the market
Additional uncertainty has emerged following the UAE’s decision to exit OPEC+, sparking debate about the future of production control mechanisms within the cartel. Despite this, OPEC+ continues to signal its readiness to increase output to offset potential supply shortages. Meanwhile, the US is boosting oil and petroleum product exports to record levels in an effort to partially compensate for global supply disruptions. However, even rising US exports have not yet been able to fully eliminate the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
Technical outlook: market remains overbought, but the trend is upward
From a technical perspective, the oil market continues to show strong bullish momentum. For WTI, key support remains in the $94–93.5 range, while the $100 level acts as the nearest resistance. As previously noted in the article U.S. crude holds below $100 as downside risks remain, geopolitical factors are expected to continue driving WTI price dynamics.
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