-2.06% for Gold as strong US dollar limits gold upside

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Gold slides 2.06% to $4,556 today

Highlights

India raised gold import duties to 15%, constraining supplies into a key consumer market and pressuring physical flows.
Geopolitical instability in the Middle East and persistent US inflation have introduced volatility and limited gold's upside potential.
Gold faces sustained bearish momentum and high volatility, with a likely trading range of $4,480–$4,700 and further declines favored unless resistance is breached.

Strained supply and geopolitical risks as India hikes duties

India raised import duties on gold from 6% to 15%, an action that restricts the flow of physical gold into one of the world's largest consumer markets and tightens the supply chain. The ongoing Middle East crisis, including the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has disrupted global trade and added geopolitical premiums to precious metals markets. Additional volatility has stemmed from unresolved US-Iran tensions, disruptions in US-China relations after the Trump-Xi summit failed to address key issues, and a stronger US dollar due to persistent inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve signals, all of which have limited the upside for gold.

Bearish momentum prevails amid failed support and volatility

Gold is trading well below the MA-20 ($4,659.24) and MA-50 ($4,659.83), while hovering just under the MA-200 at $4,591.19, indicating a lack of long-term support at present. Resistance is immediate at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $4,693.86. Momentum indicators remain bearish, with MACD registering a strong sell, ADX confirming downward movement, while RSI (47.85), Stoch RSI, and CCI all reflect neutral but not oversold conditions. The Bull/Bear Power (BBP) underscores significant seller domination intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral. The session began with a gap down, and current trading remains near the session’s low, with intraday volatility evident and no positive divergence observed among momentum signals.

Rangebound outlook as breakout odds remain low

Looking ahead to the next five trading days, XAU is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band of $4,480–$4,700. The probability of a sustained price increase is very low (less than 20%), and the baseline scenario involves continued sideways trading within this range. Any significant upward move would require a breakout above resistance at $4,694, while a decline below $4,480 could open up further downside toward the next key support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees the gold market weighed down by regulatory changes and global tensions. He believes India’s gold import duty hike and supply disruptions from the Middle East crisis are strengthening the fundamental case for tight market conditions. However, hawkish US policy and a firm dollar continue to limit upside for now. In his view, sideways volatility is most likely unless key resistance is broken. "I remain constructive on gold’s macro outlook, but caution that any sustained rally depends on a clear shift in policy or risk sentiment."

Earlier, analysts noted that ongoing regulatory tightening in key consumer markets and persistent technical weakness were keeping gold under bearish pressure. Recent developments reinforce this cautious outlook, with traders now advised to monitor for a decisive move outside the $4,480–$4,700 volatility band as a potential signal for the next directional trend.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.