Weak session lows drag Coinbase stock down 5.51%

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Coinbase drops 5.51% today to $199.83

Highlights

Coinbase becomes treasury operator for Hyperliquid by acquiring USDH assets and making USDC the primary stablecoin reserve.
Coinbase increases its HYPE token stake and commits reserve yields to protocol incentives and ecosystem growth amid ongoing market pressure.
Technical signals indicate choppy momentum with a high probability of decline, setting a $190–$215 trading range and downside risk if support breaks.

Coinbase expands stablecoin control as new operator amid liquidity shift

Coinbase was confirmed as the new USDC treasury operator for Hyperliquid after acquiring the USDH brand assets from Native Markets, consolidating its control over the platform’s stablecoin reserves and related operations. The phase-out of USDH and adoption of USDC as the core stablecoin shifts ecosystem liquidity and enables Coinbase to directly manage reserves under the Aligned Quote Asset framework. As part of the arrangement, Coinbase has also increased its staked position in Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE and will direct reserve yields back to the protocol for ecosystem incentives and development, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Range-bound action persists as momentum signals diverge

Technical analysis points to specific levels: COIN’s price is positioned just below the MA-20 at $200.00, while it holds above the MA-50 at $191.93 and is well below the MA-200 at $255.33. The Ichimoku Kijun level is at $192.78, serving as immediate support. Momentum indicators are mixed — daily MACD reflects ongoing bullish momentum, but the ADX remains low, indicating a weak overall trend. Meanwhile, CCI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) both indicate overbought conditions, Stoch RSI is high but not at extremes, and the RSI is moderately elevated. Today’s trading session features a sharp single-day decline, with the price closing near the session low and significant intraday volatility dominating price action.

Elevated downside risk as range-bound volatility dominates outlook

In the short term, expected volatility suggests a trading range between $190 and $215, reflecting the typical band relative to current levels. The probability of continued price declines remains elevated, with odds above 80%, making a near-term rebound less likely. Baseline expectations are for COIN to move sideways within this range; however, a break above $215 could trigger a bullish reversal toward $220, while a decline below $190 would confirm further downside risk and expose the next support area.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the confirmation of Coinbase as Hyperliquid’s USDC treasury operator as a strong fundamental shift favoring stablecoin adoption and deeper institutional integration in DeFi. Despite today’s price drop, Karapetjanc remains optimistic given the doubling of USDC supply and Coinbase's hands-on management of DeFi reserves. He believes the technical setup supports further volatility within the $190–$215 range, with catalysts in place for recovery if broader sentiment improves. "The underlying adoption and protocol changes signal growing momentum for Coinbase, and I expect strength to return once the current sell-off subsides."

Previously it was reported that Coinbase had established a central role in Hyperliquid’s stablecoin infrastructure, with technical signals suggesting a neutral to bearish bias in the near term. The latest developments, including increased control over reserves and elevated selling pressure, underscore the importance of monitoring the $190 support level, as a confirmed break below this threshold would signal further downside risk for COIN.

Source of Data: COIN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.