Natural gas maintains moderately bullish tone amid weather and geopolitical factors
The natural gas market continues to trade in a highly volatile environment. The main pressure on prices currently comes from elevated U.S. gas inventories and seasonally weak demand, while support is provided by expectations of hotter weather later in May and rising global geopolitical risks.
Henry Hub futures remain near the $2.9–3.0 per MMBtu range, as traders closely monitor weekly storage data and LNG export activity.
LNG and the Middle East strengthen the long-term bullish scenario
One of the key market drivers remains the situation in the Middle East and the risk of potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, interest in U.S. LNG continues to grow, while the United States keeps expanding its export capacity. Recently, the launch of a new $13 billion LNG project in Louisiana backed by Mubadala Energy was confirmed. Analysts believe LNG exports are becoming the main structural driver of long-term demand growth for U.S. natural gas.
Weather and inventories remain the main short-term drivers
The market is currently balancing between high inventory levels and expectations of stronger summer electricity demand. The latest EIA data showed a storage build of 85 billion cubic feet, close to seasonal averages. At the same time, weather forecasts point to higher temperatures across the United States in the second half of May, which could increase gas consumption by power plants and support prices above $3.00. However, temporary maintenance-related reductions at LNG export terminals are still limiting upside momentum.
Technical outlook and near-term scenario
Technically, the natural gas market remains within a broad trading range. Immediate support is located around $2.80–2.75, while key resistance stands near $3.00–3.10. A sustained move above $3 could open the door for a stronger recovery driven by summer demand and rising LNG exports. At the same time, persistently high inventories and weak consumption may renew downside pressure in the short term, as previously mentioned in the article Natural gas holds above $2.70 as weather-driven demand supports prices.
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