The U.S. crude market continues to experience elevated volatility amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The main driver behind rising prices remains the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global oil exports.
WTI climbed above $105 per barrel following renewed upside momentum, while investors continue pricing in a significant geopolitical risk premium. Additional support for oil prices comes from rising inflation expectations and concerns over a potential new energy crisis.
OPEC+, Iran, and supply disruptions are creating a market deficit
Recent reports from the IEA and EIA point to a significant reduction in available global oil supply. According to EIA estimates, production disruptions in the Middle East already exceed 10 million barrels per day, with part of the lost supply potentially not returning even in the medium term. At the same time, OPEC+ continues to tightly manage output in an effort to maintain market balance amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Demand is slowing, but the market remains tight
Despite elevated prices, the global economy has not yet shown a sharp decline in oil demand. However, the IEA has already lowered its forecast for global consumption growth due to deteriorating economic conditions and higher fuel costs. Pressure is also increasing from elevated interest rates and growing fears of a stagflation scenario in both the U.S. and Europe. Meanwhile, global oil inventories continue to decline at a rapid pace, limiting the potential for a deep price correction.
Technical outlook and near-term scenario
Technically, WTI maintains a strong upward trend after consolidating above the $100 level. Immediate resistance is located in the $110–115 area, while further escalation of the conflict could push prices toward the $115–120 range. Support is seen near $103, where buyer interest remains strong.
As long as the geopolitical premium stays elevated, the oil market is likely to remain highly nervous and volatile, as previously discussed in the article U.S. crude rises amid geopolitical risks and supply concerns.
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