Vox gains leverage in Andalusia coalition talks after PP loses majority

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Vox leverage in Andalusia talks

Highlights

The People’s Party wins 53 seats in the Andalusian parliament, down from 58 in 2022 and below the 55 needed for an absolute majority, giving Vox’s 15 seats crucial coalition leverage.
Sánchez’s Socialist party suffers its weakest Andalusian result since 1982, dropping to 28 seats, while leftwing Adelante Andalusia rises from two to eight seats, mainly at the Socialists’ expense.
Vox’s influence grows as its support helps shift regional focus to domestic issues like immigration and economic strain, despite Spain having the world’s fastest-growing large advanced economy over two years.

Andalusia vote reshapes government formation

As reported by Financial Times, the People’s Party wins 53 seats in the Andalusian parliament, down from 58 in 2022 and below the 55 needed for an absolute majority, leaving it dependent on Vox’s 15 seats to secure control of the regional government.

The ballot is the last major electoral test before a Spanish general election due by August 2027. Vox’s vote share rises by less than half a percentage point from the last regional election, but the shift, combined with weaker support for the PP, is enough to make the anti-immigration party a likely coalition partner.

Juan Manuel Moreno, the PP’s regional leader and Andalusian president, says the party does not achieve the result it had aimed for but still posts an excellent showing. Although he does not address a coalition directly, he says it falls to the PP to take responsibility for forming a government.

Manuel Gavira, Vox’s leader in Andalusia, says voters have made clear that they want the party’s “national priority” policy, which gives Spaniards preferential access to public housing, services and welfare benefits. Pollster Paco Camas of Ipsos says it is hard to believe there will not be a PP-Vox coalition in the region.

Setback for Sánchez and wider political impact

The result is a sharp setback for Sánchez’s Socialist party, which wins 28 seats, down two from the previous vote, in its weakest Andalusian performance since the first regional elections in 1982. María Jesús Montero, Sánchez’s former deputy prime minister and the Socialist candidate, runs a campaign that fails to reverse the party’s losses.

International issues play little or no role in the campaign, despite Sánchez raising his global profile by opposing U.S. President Donald Trump over the Iran war and Nato defence spending, Camas says. Instead, the regional contest turns more heavily on domestic concerns including immigration, public services and household economic strain.

Vox also attacks Sánchez over a planned amnesty that gives at least 500,000 people in Spain illegally a path to residency and work permits. At the same time, frustration over living costs persists even as Spain posts strong GDP figures and stands out as the world’s fastest-growing large advanced economy over the past two years.

The election also brings gains for Adelante Andalusia, a leftwing regionalist party that expands its representation to eight seats from two, taking support from the Socialists. Montero tries to weaken Moreno by focusing on problems in public healthcare, including a scandal involving mammogram results, but she also faces criticism this week after describing the deaths of two law enforcement officers pursuing drug traffickers at sea as a workplace accident.

Our earlier report on Morningstar DBRS’s affirmation of the UK’s AA sovereign rating highlighted how the country’s large, diversified economy and strong institutions continue to support its credit profile despite inflation and external risks. We noted that high public debt and a structural deficit keep fiscal pressures elevated, while the Bank of England’s cautious policy stance reflects renewed energy-driven inflation and a still-fragile growth outlook.

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