Gold price prediction: Can $4,693 resistance hold as XAU trades up?

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Gold gains 1.11% today to $4,549.59

Highlights

Central bank gold purchases surged to 244 tons in Q1 2026, underscoring strong official sector demand and supporting prices.
India's higher recycling volumes and stricter import caps, along with China's growing recycling sector, are expanding secondary gold supply globally.
Gold remains in a medium-term bearish trend, with technical signals pointing to likely price consolidation between $4,470 and $4,620 amid weak momentum.

Central bank buying and Asian recycling reshape gold supply trends

Central banks increased gold purchases in the first quarter of 2026, with the World Gold Council reporting a rise to 244 tons from 208 tons in the previous quarter, highlighting strong official sector demand as a key driver for gold. In India, sustained high prices alongside evolving consumer preferences encouraged greater recycling of idle gold ornaments, raising the supply of physical gold from secondary sources. Additionally, recent regulatory moves have capped India's duty-free gold imports at 100 kg following a duty hike, potentially affecting formal bullion inflows. China's rapidly expanding gold recycling industry, marked by the emergence of new firms, also adds to the evolving landscape of supply in the global market.

Bearish momentum persists as oversold signals contrast intraday volatility

Technically, XAU is trading below the MA-20 at $4,640.92 and MA-50 at $4,663.22, and remains just under the MA-200 at $4,594.02, with the Ichimoku Kijun level providing immediate resistance at $4,693.86. On the daily timeframe, momentum indicators show persistent bearishness as MACD and ADX signal a sell bias. However, RSI at 38.30, Stoch RSI at 12.70, and CCI at −114.94 all reveal oversold conditions, while BBP at −85.40 indicates sustained intraday seller dominance. Today's session began with a notable price gap and XAU is currently near its high of $4,557.47, underscoring strong intraday volatility and a possible short-term divergence from the broader momentum picture.

Volatility band holds as oversold readings curb further gold swings

In the short term, gold is likely to remain within a typical volatility band between $4,470 and $4,620, as oversold technical readings and key support levels contain further swings. If the price manages a breakout above $4,620, short covering could drive a test of nearby resistance. Conversely, a move below $4,470 would indicate renewed downside risk against a backdrop of sustained weak momentum and modest buyer participation.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees central bank buying as a critical support for gold, but notes that technical conditions remain weak. He highlights growing recycled supply from India and China as potential headwinds, while technical signals point to a fragile oversold bounce, not a reversal. The analyst maintains a cautious stance as long as XAU trades below major moving averages and resistance at $4,620. "Until gold closes decisively above $4,620, I remain defensive and see upside as limited to short-term rebounds only."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent technical weakness and regulatory headwinds were keeping gold prices under sustained bearish pressure. With new evidence of oversold technical readings and evolving supply dynamics from both official sector buying and increased recycling, traders should closely monitor for a potential shift in momentum signaled by any decisive breakout above the $4,620 resistance level.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.