$4,455 support level keeps Gold stable near recent lows

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Gold drops 0.68% today to $4,535.15

Highlights

India's National Stock Exchange launched Electronic Gold Receipts trading, boosting retail and institutional access to physically backed gold assets.
Central banks maintained consistent gold purchases, supporting physical market flows despite ongoing pressure on gold prices.
Gold trades in a bearish range below key technical resistance, with a near-term forecast between $4,455 and $4,589 and downside risk prevailing.

Market access expands and fund flows shift amid regulatory change

The National Stock Exchange in India enabled trading of Electronic Gold Receipts by retail and institutional participants as of May 19, expanding direct access to physically backed gold instruments stored in regulated vaults. This regulatory development increases market accessibility for one of the world’s largest gold-consuming regions and introduces new sources of investment and liquidity for physical gold. Central banks were also reported to have continued purchasing gold, sustaining buyer flow in the physical market, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum persists as price holds beneath key resistance

The asset's price is trading below the short-term SMA-20 ($4,632.77), SMA-50 ($4,666.16), and SMA-200 ($4,596.24) levels. Immediate resistance is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun on D1, which stands at $4,658.11. On the daily timeframe, both MACD and ADX indicate prevailing downward momentum, aligning with a bearish setup. The session opened with a slight gap down, and volatility remains moderate with price near the lower end of today’s range. RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI do not yet show clear oversold signals, but BBP at -38.07 with its oversold reading and the AO’s confirmation of downward force highlight sellers’ dominance in the intraday context.

Consolidation expected as persistent bearish signals curb upside risk

For the coming week, the projected price range is $4,455 — $4,589, reflecting typical volatility for current conditions. The probability of an upswing is low, below 20%, due to persistent daily and weekly bearish momentum signals. The baseline case sees gold consolidating within a sideways corridor at present levels. If price rises above the immediate resistance at $4,658, a bullish recovery could develop; conversely, a break below $4,455 support would likely open further downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees the recent regulatory shift in India as a positive signal for long-term gold demand. However, he notes that technical momentum remains decisively bearish, with price trading below major moving averages and intraday sentiment favoring sellers. The analyst believes gold is likely to consolidate within its current range, with probabilities skewed to the downside unless resistance at $4,658 is reclaimed. "Until gold can push above key resistance, any upside is likely to be capped — my base case remains defensive for now."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent technical weakness alongside heightened geopolitical and central bank dynamics were keeping gold under sustained bearish pressure. The current environment reinforces this downside bias, with new regulatory developments in India expanding market access but failing to offset ongoing selling momentum—making a confirmed move above $4,658 a critical signal for any potential recovery.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.