UK homes face overheating risk by 2050 without climate adaptation

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UK homes overheating risk

Highlights

The Climate Change Committee projects 92 per cent of UK homes could face overheating by 2050 without adaptation, compared to just over half today.
Annual investment of about £11bn from public and private sectors is needed until the 2050s to address climate resilience and generate potential tens of billions in returns.
Summer water supply shortfalls may surpass 5bn litres daily and annual heat-related deaths could rise to 10,000 without urgent adaptation measures.

Climate adaptation needs and investment plan

As reported by the Financial Times, around 92 per cent of UK homes could be exposed to overheating by 2050 without adaptation measures, compared with just over half today. The committee defines overheating as a bedroom temperature rising above 26C overnight for a certain number of hours each year.

The assessment is based on global temperatures rising 2C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, in line with the upper limit of the Paris agreement target. The committee says urgent action is needed to prepare homes and workplaces for more intense heat, including investment in cooling technologies such as air conditioning, heat pumps and green shading.

Fewer than 5 per cent of UK dwellings currently have air conditioning, although demand has risen sharply in recent years as temperatures increase. The committee also says the government should commit to a national maximum temperature for workplaces to improve worker safety.

The report estimates that about £11bn a year from the public and private sectors will be needed until the 2050s, and argues that the spending could generate returns worth tens of billions. It also warns that not every adaptation measure will be affordable and says ministers need to be clearer about the level of resilience people expect and what they are willing to pay for it.

Health, water and economic pressure

The committee says summer water supply shortfalls could exceed 5bn litres a day, equivalent to losing the full capacity of Darwell Reservoir in East Sussex every day. It also says the UK already sees between 1,400 and 3,000 excess heat-related deaths during heatwaves each year, and that figure could rise to as high as 10,000 without adaptation measures.

Julia King, Baroness Brown of Cambridge, who chairs the CCC adaptation committee, says lives, landscapes and homes are under increasing pressure from climate change. She adds that stronger adaptation is fundamental to protecting food, energy and economic security.

Emma Howard Boyd, a professor in practice at the London School of Economics' Grantham Research Institute, says the findings should remove any remaining doubt that heat is becoming a serious and growing threat to the UK. Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds says the government will carefully consider the committee's recommendations.

Our earlier coverage of the UK Treasury’s planned mansion tax consultation explained proposals to introduce higher council tax-style charges on homes worth more than £2 million from 2028, with a possible additional premium for non-UK resident owners. It highlighted the government’s aim to raise new revenue while addressing fairness concerns and potential housing market pressures, while keeping the non-resident surcharge under review pending evidence.

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