MercadoLibre stock price forecast: $1,699 resistance as MELI rallies 3.22% to $1,646

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MercadoLibre jumps 3.22% on strong revenue

Highlights

MercadoLibre posted Q1 2026 revenue of $8.85 billion, up 49% year-over-year and above consensus forecasts, driven by robust e-commerce and fintech growth.
Operating margin fell to 6.9% due to aggressive reinvestment in logistics, shipping, and Brazilian credit card expansion, signaling a focus on long-term market share.
MELI trades below key moving averages with momentum indicators weak, consolidating between $1,646 and $1,666; probability of sustained upside is under 20% barring a breakout above $1,699.

Strong revenue growth and Burry stake fuel optimism despite margin strain

MercadoLibre has reported a 49% year-over-year growth in revenue for Q1 2026 to $8.85 billion, surpassing analyst estimates and highlighting strong expansion in its core e-commerce and fintech businesses. While operating margins narrowed to 6.9% due to increased investments in logistics, free shipping, and the credit card segment in Brazil, management stated these moves aim to drive long-term growth and platform reach. Despite a shortfall in earnings per share versus expectations, the company’s visible reinvestment program and recent increase in institutional ownership by investor Michael Burry have contributed to renewed market interest.

Seller pressure persists as oversold signals coincide with multiple resistances

MELI is currently trading below the SMA-20 ($1,727.70), SMA-50 ($1,730.78), and SMA-200 ($2,050.04) levels. The Ichimoku Kijun at $1,699.00 acts as immediate resistance above price, and today’s intraday range is $1,587.21 to $1,649.69, with price trading near session highs. The MACD remains in sell territory and the ADX shows limited trend strength, while RSI (39.36) and CCI (–73.80) indicate ongoing oversold conditions. The Stochastic RSI is neutral, and BBP sits deep in negative territory at –29.55, reflecting continued intraday seller dominance despite a modest upward rebound from opening levels.

Sideways consolidation expected unless breakout triggers new trend

Over the coming week, MELI will likely consolidate in a tight volatility band between $1,646 and $1,666. A sustained move above $1,699 would be needed to trigger meaningful short-term buying interest, flipping the scenario toward renewed upside. Conversely, slipping under $1,646 could open room for another sell-off and a retest of lower support. Until a clear breakout occurs, sideways movement within the identified corridor remains the baseline scenario.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees MercadoLibre’s underlying momentum as intact despite technical weakness and margin pressure. He notes that core revenue growth remains robust and believes management’s reinvestment into logistics and fintech is a constructive move for long-term value. Institutional interest, such as Michael Burry’s increased stake, adds to improving sentiment. For now, a breakout above $1,699 would be needed to unlock the next upward leg. "I remain constructive on MercadoLibre, as strong fundamentals and proactive strategy set the stage for future upside once near-term technical hurdles clear."

Earlier, analysts noted that MercadoLibre was experiencing persistent selling pressure and a broadly cautious technical outlook despite strong business performance. The current setup reinforces the need for vigilance, with all major moving averages trending above price and immediate resistance at $1,699; a decisive break of this level would be the signal to watch for a potential shift in momentum.

Source of Data: MELI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.