Euro vs Hryvnia holds steady as short-term sellers encounter long-term support

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Euro vs Hryvnia rises 0.52% today

Highlights

EUR/UAH is consolidating just below immediate resistance, reflecting short-term selling but strong medium- and long-term support.
Technical indicators are mixed, with oscillators suggesting oversold conditions and some momentum tools pointing to lingering downside risk.
The pair is expected to remain in a ₴51.50–₴52.20 range over five days, with over 80% probability of further gains.

Mixed momentum signals as spot tests resistance with volatility

On the technical front, the spot rate is fractionally below the MA-20 at ₴51.5179, while holding above the MA-50 (₴51.2030) and MA-200 (₴50.3182). The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ₴51.6484, marking immediate resistance. Daily oscillators offer conflicting signals: MACD and ADX remain neutral, while RSI at 47.10 and CCI at -128.02 signal mild oversold tendencies. Stochastic RSI confirms oversold momentum, although Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 0.024 points to marginal buyer dominance intraday. The Awesome Oscillator issues a sell indication, contributing to ongoing mixed momentum profiles. Trading is concentrated near the upper bound of today's ₴51.2036–₴51.5726 range, showing moderate volatility and a clear test of session highs.

Further upside likely as resistance challenges near-term gains

Looking ahead over the next five trading days, EUR/UAH is expected to remain in a typical volatility band between ₴51.50 and ₴52.20. The probability of further price gains is assessed at over 80%, making a drift lower less probable in the near term. If the pair clears resistance at ₴51.65, a test of ₴52.20 could follow. Alternatively, a break below support at ₴51.50 would risk moves toward the lower end of the current trading range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the EUR/UAH pair showing technical resilience above its medium- and long-term averages. He notes that despite short-term mixed momentum, the broader trend remains constructive. The absence of market-moving news highlights that price action is driven mainly by technical factors. Karapetjanc believes ongoing support should limit downside risk. "With volatility contained and an 80% chance of further gains, I expect bulls to push toward ₴52.20 if resistance at ₴51.65 is breached."

Earlier, analysts noted that underlying euro strength continued to drive a medium-term bullish outlook for EUR/UAH, though with cautions about shifting short-term momentum. With fresh signs of oscillators turning oversold and volatility clustering near key intraday highs, traders should closely monitor for a potential upside breakout above ₴51.65 in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.