Natural gas prices continue to show elevated volatility at the end of May following a sharp decline earlier this month. At the moment, NATGAS remains under pressure, trading near the $2.9 level.
The main downside pressure comes from rising gas inventories in both the US and Europe amid milder weather conditions and weaker seasonal demand. At the same time, geopolitical risks and ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to limit the potential for a deeper decline in prices.
European market remains sensitive to supply risks
In Europe, investors remain focused on gas storage refill rates and the possibility of LNG supply disruptions. According to the latest data, European gas storage levels are already above seasonal averages, reducing the risk of shortages ahead of the next heating season. However, the market remains highly sensitive to any news regarding supplies from the US, Qatar, and Norway. Additional support for prices comes from ongoing competition between Europe and Asia for liquefied natural gas cargoes.
US production rises while demand remains unstable
On the US market, pressure is increasing due to higher production and larger-than-expected inventory builds. Recent EIA reports showed another expansion in storage volumes, which temporarily intensified selling pressure. At the same time, demand from industry and LNG exports remains uneven: high temperatures in some states continue supporting electricity consumption, although the overall market balance is still leaning toward oversupply.
Near-term outlook: range-bound trading with risks of sharp moves
In the short term, analysts expect natural gas prices to remain within a broad trading range. Key support stands in the $2.80–2.70 area, while resistance is located near $3.00–3.05 per MMBtu, with downside risks currently prevailing. For the European TTF market, weather forecasts, storage levels, and developments in global LNG supplies will remain the key drivers.
Any escalation in geopolitical tensions or export disruptions, as I also noted in the article Natural gas under pressure as supply meets demand, could quickly bring buyers back into the market and trigger another spike in volatility.
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