The oil market continues to react sharply to developments related to US–Iran negotiations, as well as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. Recent reports of partial progress in diplomatic contacts temporarily eased concerns about supply disruptions, triggering a noticeable correction in WTI: in some sessions, prices dropped by more than 5%, falling toward the $90–89.5 per barrel range.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions have not fully subsided. New incidents in the region, attacks on infrastructure, and ongoing risks to shipping prevent the market from completely removing the risk premium from prices. As a result, oil remains highly sensitive to headlines, while intraday volatility in both Brent and WTI stays elevated.
Technical outlook and key levels
From a technical perspective, WTI remains under pressure after breaking several nearby support levels and testing the low $90–89.5 zone. Immediate resistance is now located in the $93.5–95 range, where selling pressure previously intensified. A move back above this area could improve short-term sentiment and bring buyers back into the market, especially if geopolitical risks increase.
On the downside, the key support zone remains at $84–86. Indicators still point to a bearish bias; however, signs of short-term oversold conditions increase the likelihood of sharp corrective rebounds. Additional instability comes from position liquidations and stop-order triggers, which amplify impulsive moves in both directions.
Key risks and scenarios
The primary market scenario continues to depend on further developments in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. If the diplomatic process stalls again or tensions around the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the geopolitical premium could quickly return to prices, potentially pushing WTI back toward $100 and above.
Conversely, if negotiations continue to progress smoothly and supply disruption risks decline, downward pressure on oil may persist. In this case, the market will refocus on fundamental factors—concerns about global demand, increased supply from OPEC+, and US crude inventory dynamics. Inventory data and OPEC+ decisions remain key drivers of short-term price movements, as also noted in WTI dips below $95 as the geopolitical premium eases.
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