Kalshi traders price May payrolls above Wall Street forecast ahead of Fed meeting

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Kalshi May payrolls vs Wall Street

All news

Editors' Picks

Crypto News

Financial News

Market Voices

Billionaires

Companies

Broker News

Regulators News

Ciaran Ryan

01.06.2026

Kalshi traders price May payrolls above Wall Street forecast ahead of Fed meeting — Traders bet on strong payrolls

Expectations for the May U.S. jobs report point to slower hiring than in April, but prediction market traders still see a result that tops Wall Street consensus. The payrolls release arrives days before the Federal Reserve's June 16-17 meeting, adding to its importance for interest rate expectations.

Highlights

Kalshi traders on Monday assign a 56% probability that May nonfarm payrolls will exceed the Dow Jones forecast of 90,000 jobs.
RBC Economics expects payrolls to rise by 99,000 in May with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, above the recent six-month average gain of 55,000.
Dow Jones predicts average hourly earnings will rise 3.4% year over year and 0.3% month over month, both moderating from previous rates.

Payroll estimates and market positioning

As reported by CNBC, traders on prediction market Kalshi are signaling that May nonfarm payrolls are likely to exceed the Dow Jones forecast even as overall job growth cools. Dow Jones estimates the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report a gain of 90,000 jobs on Friday, down from April's 115,000 and March's 185,000, the strongest monthly reading so far this year.

Kalshi traders on Monday assign a 56% probability that the report beats the Wall Street estimate. The market also places 49% odds on job growth above 100,000, while the probability that payroll gains exceed 110,000 stands at 40%.

RBC Economics is slightly more optimistic than the Dow Jones consensus. The firm says it expects payrolls to rise by 99,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, while noting that average monthly payroll gains over the past six months have been limited to 55,000.

Implications for the Federal Reserve and wage trends

The labor report is due before the Federal Reserve's first policy meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh on June 16-17. Markets currently expect the Federal Open Market Committee to leave rates unchanged, though the jobs figures could still shape the tone of that decision.

Economists also expect wage growth to moderate on an annual basis while remaining firm month to month. Dow Jones forecasts average hourly earnings rising 3.4% from a year earlier, down slightly from 3.6% previously, and increasing 0.3% from the prior month after April's 0.2% gain.

Our earlier article on May’s surge in U.S. factory activity highlighted that manufacturing hit a four-year high even as input-cost inflation stayed elevated and hiring remained weak. We noted that the ISM employment index continued its long contraction streak, with manufacturing payrolls down since early 2025—signals that strength in demand hasn’t translated into broader labor-market momentum.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.