-4.88% for Meta stock as capex guidance raised to $135B

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Meta slides 4.88% today to $601.03

Highlights

Beijing's order for Meta to unwind its $2 billion Manus AI deal heightens regulatory barriers to future overseas acquisitions.
Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $135–145 billion for AI and reported 33% year-over-year revenue growth amid new subscription rollouts.
Shares remain under persistent selling pressure, with technical indicators signaling strong downside momentum and a likely trading range of $580.00–$620.00 in the near term.

China order curbs AI deal as Meta raises spending, faces selloff

Beijing has expanded its regulatory control over overseas investments, resulting in a formal order for Meta to unwind its $2 billion acquisition of AI startup Manus and directly blocking the transaction. This intervention restricts Meta’s ability to carry out major AI-related acquisitions and increases regulatory risk for future global expansion efforts. Separately, Meta has rolled out paid subscription tiers across its social media platforms and sharply raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $1350 to $14500 for AI infrastructure investment. The company also reported a 33% year-over-year revenue increase in its latest quarter, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold momentum intensifies with technical breakdown and gap down

META is currently trading well below the MA-20 at $612.71, MA-50 at $618.33, and MA-200 at $665.66. The Ichimoku Kijun resistance stands at $637.55. There is strong downside momentum based on negative signals from both the MACD and ADX, while RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI all show the stock in oversold territory. Intraday, BBP highlights deep seller dominance and the Awesome Oscillator confirms the prevailing downtrend. Trading opened with a significant gap down from $631.85 to $614.74 and price continues to hover near the session's low after volatile moves.

Continued declines likely as rebound faces strong resistance

Over the next five trading days, META is expected to fluctuate within a $580.00 to $620.00 volatility band based on current conditions. There is a very high probability—over 80%—that the price will continue to edge lower, with a durable rebound appearing unlikely at this stage. If the $599.00 level fails to hold, further downside toward $580.00 is likely given persistent selling pressure. A move above $637.55 would be required to trigger any short-term bullish recovery, though momentum makes this scenario less probable.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees regulatory pressure from Beijing as a short-term headwind for Meta's global strategy. He believes strong underlying growth and new monetization options continue to support the company's long-term trajectory, even as sentiment remains negative. There is a clear fundamental case for cautious optimism once the current volatility stabilizes. "The combination of broad-based revenue growth and aggressive AI investments means Meta remains structurally well positioned despite temporary setbacks."

Earlier, analysts noted that Meta was consolidating within established ranges as new revenue streams and regulatory challenges contributed to a mixed technical outlook. The latest decisive breakdown below major moving averages and intensified regulatory intervention by Beijing now underscore heightened downside risk, making the $599 level a critical threshold for traders to monitor in the days ahead.

Source of Data: META Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.