Central bank demand lifts Gold above $4,458.57 support

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Gold jumps 1.43% today to $4,498

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Parshwa Turakhiya

9 hours ago

Central bank demand lifts Gold above $4,458.57 support — Gold jumps 1.43% today to $4,498

Gold (XAU) is trading at $4,498.02, up 1.43% on the day. The asset trades above its key short- and medium-term moving averages while remaining below longer-term averages.

XAU price prediction

24H 0.27%

$4487.61

48H 0.24%

$4486.12

7D 0.29%

$4488.46

1M -5.89%

$4211.96

3M -3.3%

$4327.63

6M 10.99%

$4967.14

12M 24.69%

$5580.57

Detailed

Current price: $ 4475.47 41.00 0.92%

Real-time Data 17:56

Daily range 4458.71

4514.47

Weekly range 4429.09

4593.27

Highlights

Gold-backed ETF inflows hit $89 billion amid aggressive central bank buying, led by Poland as top 2025 purchaser.
India's central bank raised gold reserves to 880.52 metric tonnes and boosted total foreign exchange holdings to $691.11 billion.
Short- and medium-term technicals signal strong bullish momentum for gold, with price expected to consolidate in a $4,461.31–$4,534.73 range, although multiple overbought indicators warn of potential near-term volatility.

Institutional inflows drive supply squeeze amid central bank buying

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds have attracted $89 billion in inflows as reported by News.bitcoin.com, reflecting continued large-scale gold acquisitions by central banks, notably with Poland emerging as the largest buyer in 2025. This strong institutional demand exerts clear upward pressure on global gold prices by tightening available supply. Additionally, The HinduBusinessLine notes that the Reserve Bank of India has increased its gold reserves to 880.52 metric tonnes and expanded its foreign exchange holdings to $691.11 billion, reinforcing the persistent accumulation trend among major reserve holders.

Mixed momentum as bullish signals meet overbought risk

Technically, XAU/USD is trading above its MA-20 ($4,458.36) and MA-50 ($4,470.39) on the hourly chart, while remaining below the MA-200 ($4,631.33) on the daily. Immediate support is provided by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $4,458.57. The MACD indicator signals a buy, although ADX suggests only moderate trend strength. RSI stands at 62.43, indicating robust buying, while overbought signals from Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) highlight potential for near-term overextension. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, neither confirming nor contradicting the bullish signals.

Consolidation expected as upside bias holds above support

Over the next 23 trading days, XAU is expected to consolidate between $4,461.31 and $4,534.73, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability favors an upward move, with downward scenarios considered much less likely unless immediate support is breached. The baseline forecast is for the price to stabilize within this range, while a decisive break above resistance could trigger further gains, and a drop below support would open the door to corrective downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees strong fundamental momentum driving gold higher. He notes central bank accumulation and vast ETF inflows as clear signs of robust, ongoing demand. Technical signals remain constructive, with price holding above key short-term averages and buyers in control. He believes the probability favors upward consolidation within the stated range, with corrections likely to be shallow. "With persistent institutional interest and bullish sentiment, I expect gold to maintain its upward bias in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted a structural increase in official sector gold demand and a bullish tilt, supported by persistent central bank accumulation amid geopolitical uncertainties. The current backdrop not only confirms this trend but also highlights record-breaking ETF inflows and robust institutional buying, making sustained accumulation a key factor to watch for momentum shifts in gold’s trajectory.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.