National Grid stock price forecast: GBX1,197.26 support as NG trades flat

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National Grid slips 0.42% to GBX1,197.50

Highlights

National Grid has submitted 25 proposals to Ofgem seeking approval to adjust its multi-billion pound five-year investment plan under the re-openers framework.
These regulatory filings may impact the timing and scale of future network upgrades, with potential implications for investor returns and visibility.
Technicals show NG/GBX trading below short-term moving averages with strong bearish momentum, likely to remain rangebound between GBX1,184.31 and GBX1,210.69, and downside break carries high probability.

Regulatory submissions drive uncertainty amid sustained selling pressure

National Grid submitted 25 tactical proposals to Ofgem on June 3 as part of the 're-openers' framework, seeking approval for elements of its five-year, multi-billion pound investment plan. This regulatory step allows the company to revisit previously set parameters in response to evolving operational needs, which may affect the pace and scale of network upgrades. While the final outcome may shape future regulatory returns and visibility for investors, price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Technical barriers and oversold readings reinforce weak momentum

On the hourly chart, NG is trading below the MA-20 at GBX1,207.75 and MA-50 at GBX1,202.57, while holding above the MA-200 at GBX1,197.26. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at GBX1,206.25, creating immediate resistance. Momentum indicators signal continued weakness: MACD is in sell mode, RSI is subdued at 43.85, and CCI, BBP, and Awesome Oscillator all point to selling momentum. ADX remains neutral, but both Stoch RSI and BBP highlight oversold conditions and sustained seller dominance. Today's session opened with a downside gap and is holding near intraday lows on low volatility, confirming weak buyer interest.

Rangebound scenario persists as downside breakout risk builds

Over the next few sessions, NG is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between GBX1,184.31 and GBX1,210.69. The probability of an upside breakout remains low, while a downside break below support carries a heightened risk. The base case envisions rangebound price action, with a potential bearish extension if current support levels fail.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees persistent pressure on National Grid shares, with technical signals confirming weak buying interest. Despite the company's submission of 25 tactical proposals to Ofgem that could impact regulatory outcomes, the market remains focused on immediate price action. The base scenario favors rangebound movement between GBX1,184.31 and GBX1,210.69, with a heightened risk of a bearish extension if support fails. "Given unresolved regulatory outcomes and sustained selling momentum, I am cautious until NG proves it can hold above key technical support," Kharitonov states.

Previously it was reported that National Grid’s stock faced increased short-term caution amid mixed technical signals and regulatory scrutiny over its investment proposals. The current environment reinforces this caution, as persistent downside momentum and weak buyer interest signal that traders should closely monitor for a potential breakdown below long-term support as the next catalyst.

Source of Data: NG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.