SpaceX draws bullish Wall Street coverage ahead of Nasdaq debut

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SpaceX Nasdaq debut outlook

Highlights

Oppenheimer initiated SpaceX coverage with an outperform rating and a 12- to 18-month target of $190, forecasting a 40% gain over the $135 IPO price.
New Street Research set a 12-month target of $165 and projects SpaceX revenue to rise from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $195 billion by 2030, with net profit expected in 2027.
SpaceX perpetual futures trade above $160, indicating market expectations for a strong debut relative to the IPO price and bullish initial sentiment.

Initial analyst targets before listing

As reported by CNBC, Oppenheimer initiated coverage on SpaceX with an outperform rating and a 12- to 18-month price target of $190, implying a roughly 40% gain from the IPO price of $135. New Street Research also began coverage with a 12-month price target of $165, indicating a roughly 22% upside, although it did not assign a formal rating to the stock.

In a Thursday note, Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan says SpaceX's diversified portfolio makes the company attractive to investors. He says the company can use terrestrial compute expertise to support scale and cost advantages, and describes its space infrastructure as structurally advantaged, while warning that the shares are likely to be volatile even if they rise initially.

New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu bases his target on long-term expansion, forecasting SpaceX revenue of $195 billion by 2030, up from $18.7 billion in 2025. He also expects the company to begin generating net profit in 2027 after posting a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025.

IPO constraints shape broader bank coverage

Ferragu estimates SpaceX could be valued at $2.3 trillion in 2027, and says that figure could rise if the addressable market for the company's space business turns out to be larger than expected. Under New Street's higher-end scenario, fair value could reach $330 a share if the overall opportunity expands further and SpaceX captures 50% market share.

The two firms are the first banks to initiate coverage on the company. Many major Wall Street banks are waiting until after the IPO to publish recommendations because they underwrote the deal and face restrictions on appearing to promote the offering.

SpaceX perpetual futures are already trading and indicate the stock could open above $160 on its first trading day. That suggests market participants are positioning for a stronger start than the $135 IPO price implies.

In our earlier coverage of SpaceX’s IPO build-up, we noted that the company entered the offering window with unusually high public visibility and broad retail interest, alongside a clear partisan split in sentiment tied to Elon Musk. We also highlighted that limited public-market comparables and the timing of options, ETF launches, and index-related flows could make the first days of trading especially volatile.

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