US Dollar vs Uzbekistani Som holds steady as price hovers below long-term average

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US Dollar vs Uzbekistani Som drops 0.59%

Highlights

USD/UZS remains under pressure, trading below key moving averages across all timeframes, confirming a persistent bearish trend.
Short-term technical signals are mixed, with momentum indicators mostly neutral but oversold oscillators suggesting bears may be overextended.
USD/UZS is projected to fluctuate between 11,937.53 and 12,057.51 over the next few sessions, with downside risk dominating unless resistance above 12,055.42 breaks.

Mixed momentum as oversold signals test resistance levels

On the hourly chart, USD/UZS is trading below the MA-20 (UZS12,063.04), MA-50 (UZS12,054.64), and MA-200 (UZS12,092.32). Immediate resistance is offered by the Ichimoku Kijun level at UZS12,055.42. Momentum indicators show divergence: MACD and ADX are neutral, RSI sits at 41.3 signaling a Sell, while Stoch RSI and CCI are in oversold territory, pointing to potentially stretched short-term bearishness. BBP reads as overbought, suggesting buyers are attempting to intervene, but Awesome Oscillator continues to confirm the dominant Sell trend.

Downside risk remains dominant as volatility drives trading range

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/UZS is expected to fluctuate within a range of UZS11,937.53 to UZS12,057.51 as typical volatility persists. The chance of a further downside move remains very high, while the probability of a meaningful rebound is currently limited. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways action within the established band. A move above the UZS12,055.42 resistance could trigger a recovery attempt, whereas a break below the UZS11,937.53 support zone would confirm additional weakness.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that USD/UZS continues to display short-term weakness with the pair consistently under major moving averages. The analyst sees bearish sentiment holding as momentum indicators and oversold readings suggest sellers retain control. However, sideways trading around UZS11,937.53 to UZS12,057.51 is expected in the near term. A push above immediate resistance near UZS12,055.42 could bring a recovery attempt. "With sentiment still defensive and momentum bearish, I remain constructive only if we clear key resistance — until then, the downside scenario dominates."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS was exhibiting short-term resilience but faced persistent selling pressure over the medium and longer term. With downside risks now intensifying and momentum indicators pointing to sustained weakness, traders should closely monitor for a potential break below UZS11,937.53 as confirmation of a deeper bearish move.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.