U.S. travel sector sees weak World Cup demand as hotel and flight bookings lag

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Highlights

Hotel Association of New York City cut its World Cup hotel room revenue forecast by 60% to $60 million, with expected visitors lowered from 1.2 million to 500,000.
Cirium data shows June and July flight bookings from Europe to U.S. host cities are down 3.8% year-over-year, plunging 15.8% for New York, while CoStar reports hotel bookings up just 0.5%.
High ticket prices nearing $1,000, stringent U.S. visa requirements, and logistical challenges curb fan travel, but Airbnb sees record demand in Boston and Los Angeles.

Booking trends weaken before kickoff

As reported by Reuters, hotels and airlines in U.S. host cities are entering the tournament with demand below earlier expectations, despite years of forecasts that the event would deliver a major windfall for the travel industry.

The shortfall is especially visible in New York, which hosts the July 19 final. Vijay Dandapani, CEO of the Hotel Association of New York City, says the group has cut its forecast for hotel room revenue tied to the World Cup by 60% to about $60 million. FIFA had projected 1.2 million fans would come to the city, but the association is now expecting about 500,000.

Data from Cirium shows flight bookings from Europe into most host cities for June and July are down 3.8% on average from a year earlier. Bookings from Europe into New York are down 15.8%. CoStar data also points to a muted hotel picture, with average bookings across host cities up just 0.5% from a year earlier.

Some hotels are already lowering prices to stimulate demand. Dandapani says several New York properties are discounting rooms, including the New York Hilton Midtown, where rates for the tournament have been cut to $415 per night, about half the level advertised in December. Hilton said in April that bookings were strong, led by New York, while Marriott said in May that much of the latter-half tournament demand still had not been booked because matchups were not yet decided.

High costs and visa hurdles curb fan travel

The weaker start suggests the usual World Cup tourism model is under strain in the U.S., where soccer draws less domestic interest than in parts of Europe and Latin America. Industry analysts say expensive tickets, stricter border concerns and the challenge of traveling across 16 host cities in three countries are limiting early bookings.

Fans from more than half of the qualified countries need visas to enter the United States, adding both cost and uncertainty. FIFA's ticketing approach has also added pressure, with record base prices, dynamic pricing and uncapped resale pricing pushing entry costs higher. In cities such as New York and Miami, the cheapest tickets now approach $1,000, according to TicketData.

Andy Milne, an England supporter and author of That World Cup Guy, says some fans are choosing cheaper alternatives such as watching matches from Ibiza or Las Vegas instead of traveling to stadiums. Dana Lattouf, CEO of UK ticket distributor Tickitto, says even if ticket prices ease closer to major matches, overseas fans may still hesitate because of the cost and complexity of arranging last-minute travel and visas.

One brighter area is short-term rentals. Airbnb told investors in May that the World Cup is on track to be its largest event ever, and AirDNA data shows bookings are running higher in cities including Boston and Los Angeles, where hosts are raising prices to capture late demand.

In our earlier article on May’s U.S. producer-price surge, we explained how an energy-driven jump in wholesale inflation pushed annual PPI to the highest level in years. We also noted that higher fuel and shipping costs were strengthening expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep policy restrictive, increasing the risk that elevated prices filter through to consumer spending decisions.

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