The euro continues to receive fundamental support from the European Central Bank’s relatively hawkish rhetoric. Last week, the ECB raised its key interest rate to 2.25% and maintained a cautious tone, highlighting persistent inflation risks and leaving the door open for further action if necessary.
Inflation across the euro area remains above the central bank’s target, limiting the scope for policy easing and providing medium-term support for the single currency.
Dollar retains an edge on safe-haven demand
At the same time, the U.S. dollar remains resilient amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. Despite the ECB’s rate hike, investors have shown little appetite for aggressively increasing long euro positions, as the greenback continues to benefit from its safe-haven status. The yield differential between U.S. and European assets also remains a key factor limiting the upside potential of EUR/USD.
Technical outlook: resistance at 1.1600–1.1620 remains intact
According to the H4 chart, EUR/USD continues to trade near the key resistance zone at 1.1600–1.1620. Buyers have attempted several times to establish a foothold above this area but have repeatedly encountered selling pressure. The pair remains below the 200-period moving average, while recent rebounds appear to be corrective moves within the broader bearish structure that developed following the decline from the 1.1780 area. As long as resistance remains unbroken, the advantage stays with the sellers.
Key levels and scenarios
Immediate resistance is located at 1.1600–1.1620. Only a decisive breakout and sustained move above this zone would open the way toward 1.1645–1.1680. Otherwise, the risk of renewed downside pressure remains elevated, with support seen at 1.1580, followed by 1.1540–1.1500. For now, the market continues to consolidate, and the inability to break resistance highlights investors’ caution ahead of fresh economic signals from both the United States and the eurozone, as noted in Euro remains under pressure ahead of Fed rate decision.
Today, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Despite continued pressure from Donald Trump for lower borrowing costs, the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged.
Latest EUR/USD News
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