EUR/USD continues to trade in a relatively narrow range near 1.1430 as investors balance expectations for future Federal Reserve policy against renewed geopolitical tensions. The latest Fed minutes reinforced that policymakers remain divided on the timing of the next policy move, while recent U.S. economic data have not provided a decisive catalyst for either the dollar or the euro.
Markets continue to price a cautious Fed approach, limiting aggressive dollar buying despite elevated global uncertainty.
Middle East tensions support safe haven demand
The renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran has returned geopolitical risk to the forefront of financial markets. Higher oil prices have increased concerns about inflation, while demand for traditional safe haven assets has provided intermittent support for the U.S. dollar. At the same time, investors recognize that a prolonged increase in energy costs could also complicate the economic outlook for both the United States and the euro area, preventing a sustained directional move in EUR/USD.
ECB expectations continue to underpin the euro
The euro remains relatively resilient as investors continue to evaluate the possibility of further ECB policy tightening later this year. Expectations that the ECB may maintain a restrictive stance have helped offset part of the dollar's safe haven appeal. Currency markets remain highly sensitive to incoming inflation data and central bank communication, with policy divergence between Frankfurt and Washington remaining the primary medium-term driver for EUR/USD.
Technical picture points to continued range trading
The hourly chart shows EUR/USD remaining inside a well-defined consolidation zone between approximately 1.1400 and 1.1465. Price is fluctuating around its short and medium-term moving averages, while the 200-period moving average continues to flatten, reflecting the absence of a strong trend. A sustained move above the upper boundary of the range would improve the short-term bullish outlook, while a break below 1.1400, as I noted in EUR/USD consolidates as Middle East tensions offset weaker U.S. dollar outlook, could strengthen bearish momentum and expose the pair to a deeper correction.
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