SpaceX and robotaxis put Tesla under pressure

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SpaceX and robotaxis put Tesla under pressure

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Mykhailo Ihnatenko

1 hour ago

SpaceX and robotaxis put Tesla under pressure

Investors continue to price Tesla as an AI and robotics company, making progress in FSD, robotaxis, and Optimus critical for future growth. At the same time, rising competition and the growing influence of SpaceX are putting that narrative to the test.

Tesla shares remain sensitive to developments surrounding SpaceX. Following the SPCX IPO, a portion of investor capital and attention shifted toward Elon Musk's newest publicly traded company, temporarily reducing Tesla's status as the flagship "Musk trade."

If short-term traders begin taking profits in SPCX today, Tesla could also come under pressure due to the strong correlation between Musk-related assets.

At the same time, competition in the robotaxi market is intensifying. Uber continues to expand its autonomous vehicle initiatives through partnerships with WeRide and other companies, including launches in new regions.

This is particularly important for Tesla because a significant portion of its valuation already reflects expectations for the future monetization of Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi services. However, competitors are moving quickly in the same direction.

Another factor attracting investor attention is Optimus. More investors are beginning to view humanoid robots as a potential bridge between Tesla, SpaceX, and Musk's broader AI infrastructure ambitions.

For now, however, Optimus remains more of a long-term opportunity than a meaningful contributor to current revenue. The project is still at a very early stage, making it difficult to realistically assess its future profitability.

Tesla fails to reclaim key resistance at $415

As noted in our previous analysis, $415 remained Tesla's most important resistance level. This area coincides with both a local trendline resistance and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

Tesla failed to establish itself above that level, and the stock has since moved lower to test its 50-day SMA.

As a result, $400 becomes the key level to watch. A break below this support would significantly increase the probability of a retest of $382.

On the other hand, a breakout above the short-term trendline and the 200-day SMA would signal a potential reversal of the short-term trend.

Given the current news backdrop and declining trading volume, however, such a scenario appears less likely.

Tesla needs results from its AI projects

Tesla's main challenge is that the market no longer values the company solely as an electric vehicle manufacturer. Instead, investors increasingly view Tesla as an AI and robotics company.

That is why any developments related to FSD, robotaxis, and Optimus tend to have an outsized impact on investor sentiment.

If Tesla can demonstrate meaningful progress in autonomous driving and robotics, the stock could gain a powerful new catalyst for growth.

If not, investors may continue to reassess Tesla's valuation based more closely on its current financial performance rather than its long-term technological ambitions.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.