Silver trades down as US-Iran truce eases global inflation concerns

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Silver slides 1.06% to $67.23 today

Highlights

The Federal Reserve maintained rates and projected a hawkish stance, reducing expectations for near-term silver-supportive rate cuts.
Easing geopolitical tensions and lower energy risk have weakened safe-haven flows, contributing to continued softness in silver prices.
Silver trades with pronounced bearish momentum, below key moving averages and oversold on momentum indicators, with a high-probability trading range of $65.86 to $68.60 over the next 1–3 days.

Fed’s hawkish stance and US-Iran truce ease silver demand

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged while delivering a hawkish policy message, signaling that restrictive conditions may persist and reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. This policy stance tends to diminish demand for non-yielding assets such as silver, exerting downward pressure. Additionally, the interim US-Iran truce has alleviated energy price and inflation concerns, curbing safe-haven flows into precious metals and contributing to current price softness.

Oversold signals and key resistances as sellers dominate technicals

On the technical front, XAG has fallen below the short-term MA-20 at $68.67 and MA-50 at $69.57 on the 1-hour chart, with the long-term MA-200 positioned higher at $76.16. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $69.36, acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators confirm weakness: both MACD and the Awesome Oscillator signal downside, while the ADX is neutral and not pointing to a clear intraday trend. RSI sits at 32.85, and Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP all register in oversold territory, underscoring strong seller dominance and a market stretched to the downside.

Sustained downside risk as price likely to consolidate in lower band

In the short term, price action for XAG is likely to remain contained within $65.86 to $68.60, a volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of further downside is high, with sellers retaining control and upward moves appearing less likely. A consolidation scenario is the base case for the next 1 trading days; notable upward reversal would require a confirmed break above $69.36. If XAG breaks and closes below $65.86, more pronounced declines could develop.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees silver facing renewed headwinds from macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts. He notes that the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is weighing on non-yielding assets, while easing tensions between the US and Iran are dampening safe-haven flows. Despite oversold technicals, the analyst believes fundamental forces remain dominant for now. "Silver may struggle to regain momentum in the short term unless there's a major shift in rate expectations or risk sentiment," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that silver had shifted into a neutral to bearish phase amid persistent downside momentum and diminished safe-haven demand. The latest market dynamics, characterized by a hawkish Fed stance and continued technical weakness, reinforce the downside bias and highlight the importance of monitoring for a decisive move below $65.86 that could trigger further losses.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.