CVX shares drop amid sharp negative Bull/Bear Power readings: weekly report

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Chevron slips 5.06% this week

Highlights

Chevron trades below short-term averages with recent selling pressure, but maintains its longer-term uptrend above major supports.
Momentum signals are mixed, showing strong trend strength and oversold conditions, with a sharp 5.06% decline this week.
Chevron's price is expected to remain rangebound between $172 and $184 next week, with equal probability of rebound or further downside.

Portfolio expansion and stable cash flow boost sentiment during volatile week

Chevron recently agreed to acquire a 70% stake and operatorship in Greece's offshore Block 10 in the Southern Ionian Sea, expanding its deepwater exploration portfolio and entering a new country. The CEO emphasized the company's financial stability, pointing to 39 consecutive years of uninterrupted dividend increases and generating $16.6 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2025. Upstream earnings are also expected to improve in the first quarter due to higher oil and gas prices and recent geopolitical volatility in the Middle East.

Mixed momentum as weekly selling intensifies, but key supports hold

On the weekly chart, CVX exhibits mixed technical signals. The price has slipped below the MA-20 but remains above both MA-50 and MA-200, highlighting immediate downside risk countered by medium- and long-term support. Weekly momentum is conflicted — the MACD signals Strong Buy and the ADX confirms robust trend strength, but RSI and CCI both indicate oversold conditions, along with a zeroed-out Stochastic RSI. Bull/Bear Power is sharply negative, underlining the dominance of sellers this week. Volatility is elevated at 8.52%, and the price closed at the very bottom of the weekly range, reflecting forceful bearish action with early signs of potential short-term exhaustion.

Stabilization likely next week as upside and downside risks balance

Over the next 7 trading days, CVX is likely to remain rangebound between $172 and $184, stabilizing after a sharp weekly decline. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways movement unless a breakout occurs. If buying resumes and resistance at $184 is broken, a move toward the MA-20 near $189 becomes plausible; however, sustained selling could push the price below $172, targeting the MA-50 support around $169. Ultimately, with two out of four key W1 indicators still flashing buy signals, the probability of upward and downward moves is roughly balanced, favoring a stabilization scenario.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, sees Chevron’s sharp 5% decline this week as driven by persistent selling pressure, despite solid long-term technical support and robust macro fundamentals. He notes that mixed momentum signals — oversold readings but ongoing trend strength — suggest the asset may enter a stabilization phase, especially as the company expands internationally and benefits from resilient free cash flow amid volatile energy prices. Rangebound action between $172 and $184 is the base case unless a catalyst sparks a breakout. "With sentiment conflicted and sellers temporarily exhausted, I’m watching for a tactical rebound if support near $172 holds, but prefer to avoid aggressive entries until a clear shift in momentum emerges."

Earlier, analysts noted that Chevron faced persistent bearish momentum amid international expansion and investor caution linked to new capital commitments. The current environment suggests traders should closely monitor for a decisive move outside the $172–$184 range, as a breakout could establish a fresh directional bias after the recent period of heightened volatility and mixed technical signals.

Source of Data: CVX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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