Chevron stock price forecast: Testing $168.43 support as CVX falls 2.25%

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Chevron slides 2.25% to $173.46 today

Highlights

Chevron's acquisition of a 70% stake in Greece's offshore Block 10 expands its deepwater exploration footprint in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The company generated $16.6 billion in free cash flow for fiscal 2025 and maintains 39 years of consecutive dividend growth, signaling robust financial stability.
Technicals reflect strong bearish momentum, with price pressured below major moving averages and a 2–3 day trading range forecast of $168.43–$178.49.

Eastern Mediterranean expansion as financial stability meets selling pressure

Chevron has completed the acquisition of a 70% stake and operatorship in Greece's offshore Block 10 in the Southern Ionian Sea, with the remaining interest held by HELLENiQ ENERGY. This transaction expands Chevron's access to potential new reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean and increases its strategic exposure to deepwater exploration. The company also reported 39 consecutive years of uninterrupted dividend increases and generated $16.6 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2025, highlighting stable financial performance, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum entrenched as CVX holds above long-term support

From a technical perspective, CVX is trading below both the MA-20 ($179.50) and MA-50 ($184.69) on the H1 timeframe, while still positioned above the MA-200 ($171.72) on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $182.77 represents immediate resistance. Momentum indicators remain negative, with MACD and ADX both signaling sell conditions. RSI is at 26.32, accompanied by oversold readings in Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP, demonstrating entrenched seller dominance; the AO is neutral and there are no significant divergences across oscillators.

Downside favored as volatility threatens support and limits rebound

Over the next 2–3 trading days, CVX is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band of $168.43 to $178.49. The probability of a move to the upside is considered very low, while further declines are significantly more likely. If the price breaks above $182.77, additional gains could be triggered, whereas a drop below $168.43 would increase the risk of further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees Chevron as fundamentally sound, with its strategic acquisition in Greece and robust cash flow reinforcing long-term credentials. He notes that technical conditions remain adverse, with CVX under pressure and sellers dominating the momentum picture. Still, strong dividend consistency and continued investment support long-term confidence. In his view, broader market sentiment currently overwhelms positive company-specific developments. "If CVX stabilizes above the long-term average, I see opportunity for recovery once sentiment turns, as the fundamentals remain resilient."

Earlier, analysts noted that Chevron was experiencing persistent bearish momentum despite its international expansion and stable financial metrics. The current technical setup confirms ongoing seller dominance, so traders should monitor for a sustained break below the $168.43 support as a possible signal for deeper downside risk.

Source of Data: CVX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.